Projected Opening Day 2015 Yankees lineup:
Jacoby Ellsbury, 8
Brett Gardner, 7
Brian McCann, 2
Mr. Rod, DH
Mark Teixeira, 3
Carlos Beltran, 9
Martin Prado, 4
Chase Headley, 5
Someone At Shortstop, 6
Bench: John Ryan Murphy, spare catcher
Not Ichiro, backup outfielder
Brendan Ryan, backup infielder
Which would be a fine lineup if it were 2006.
Starting pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka (if the elbow holds up)
CC Sabathia (if the knee holds up)
Michael Pineda (if the shoulder holds up)
Jon Lester (if salary/years aren't so excessive that even the Yankees balk)
Ivan Nova (probably not right away)
Brandon McCarthy (probably not)
Bullpen:
Dellin Betances, closer
Adam Warren, 8th inning
Chase Whitley
Some lefty
And on down the line...
This is not looking like a contending team for some time. The Teixeira, Beltran and Sabathia contracts (not to mention Mr. Rod!) are going to be albatross-matter for a few years. (And if you think the Robinson Cano one won't be for the Mariners in five years, not to mention nine, you're adorable). There are no can't-miss prospects in the minors.
The last dynasty (and it might BE the last dynasty) was constructed of home-grown starts enhanced by very good team-oriented role players. In a couple of quick fell swoops came Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter. That ain't bad. And it's not likely to happen again for a very long time.
Instead of spending their brains out on available superstars, those Yankees went after the gritty Paul O'Neill, the steady Scott Brosius, the earnest Joe Girardi, the intense and reliable Tino Martinez. Sure David Wells was a nut, but he could pound the strike zone like no one else. Yes, El Duque would load the bases just to see if he could get out of the jam, but he got out of the jam because he was fearless.
The 2015 Yankees? Aging (in some cases, aged), tired, satisfied. Of course they want to win, but they don't NEED to win the way the Core Five (Bernie should be included) did. Yeah, Girardi is great at managing a bullpen, but then there's the whole hitting thing. Expect Kevin Long, who was regarded as a genius, to be gone. Someone's head has to roll, and you can't fire Tex, McCann and Mr. Rod.
Would that you could.
Who'll be at short? Well, that's a question we haven't had to ask since the first Clinton Administration. There are possibilities, and few of them are attractive. Nobody in the Yankee farm system seems ready to take over, and you'd think they'd have seen the writing on the wall at least two years ago.
Hanley Ramirez might be a free agent (or not--reportedly negotiations with the Dodgers are ongoing), but he'll already be 31 next year, isn't the best defensive shortstop you ever saw (I know, I know) and is projected as moving to third base in the next few years. Troy Tulowitzki? Does that guy ever make it to the field? Not to mention is contract is really expensive and goes on too long.
JJ Hardy? I'd be surprised if he's not back in Baltimore, but it's possible. And while he's not exactly a huge power guy, neither was Jeter. Hardy is very good defensively and solid, if not spectacular, offensively. He certainly knows the AL East. He might be the best fit. Will they get him? Who knows who the General Manager is going to be?
Stephen Drew? No.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Let's Party Like It's 2015
It's over.
The fat lady has sung. It got late early. Enter Sandman. Even the shouting is over. It's done. Forget it. The Yankees 2014 season has ended six weeks earlier than most other teams, and more than two months earlier than fans were hoping.
In some ways, it's amazing it lasted this long. Four out of five starting pitchers were gone for most of the year, although Michael Pineda is looking like he didn't lose anything (except games he gave to the bullpen) in the time he was out. And they keep dangling Masahiro Tanaka at us, promising he'll be back for the stretch run.
Let him stay rested. There ain't gonna be no stretch run. This puppy is over.
The funny thing is, the starting pitching turned out to be the least of this team's problems. Replacements like David Phelps, Brandon McCarthy, Chris Capuano (!) and a cast of thousands managed to pitch pretty well considering everything. That's why the games that were lost were close.
The bullpen has held up remarkably for a group of pitchers who are used pretty much every day and whose arms must be dangling by a thread. Lately there have been signs of fatigue, but how could there not be? This whole pitching staff has been held together with baling wire and chewing gum. They have performed above expectations given all the injuries.
But the hitting--and calling it that seems perverse--just never showed up this year. At Spring Training, we were salivating: Look at this deep lineup! Ellsbury to lead off! Jeter in his last year with something to prove! Teixeira back from his boatload of injuries! Additions of Beltran (the latest "always wanted to be a Yankee" to flop fairly seriously on getting his wish--remember Vernon Wells?), McCann (the next Thurman Munson? Maybe the next Rick Cerone) and Brian Roberts (because the Orioles were so stupid to let HIM go, right?).
The poster child for this year's Yankees is probably McCann. The Yankee farm system is notoriously thin, but the one thing it definitely has is a bunch of promising catchers. So the team goes out and spends beaucoup bucks on a not-quite-aging-but-almost hitter coming over from the National League (uh-oh) at that precise position. No trust in the farmhands? Does this remind anyone else of the pre-banishment George era?
What happens? The catcher of the present and the future comes out and hits .233 with a few home runs and a couple of runs batted in. He appears to call a decent game. So does Francisco Cervelli, and he actually has hit better than McCann when he could manage to walk onto a field this year.
Things aren't good in the Bronx, folks, and they ain't gonna get better soon. There's talk Brian Cashman's job might be on the line, but when you hogtie a general manager with massive contracts, tell him it's important to get under the arbitrary salary cap to save so you can spend more on aging free agents later (only to go back on that salary limit thing), and give up draft picks by signing other teams' free agents, how much can a general manager change? Will it matter if Cashman leaves after this year?
It's time to look at 2015, boys and girls, and that's not seeming a huge amount better. Or maybe even as good. The starting rotation--if the injured come back as planned--will be quite attractive, with Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, probably not Ivan Nova, at least at the beginning of the season, maybe McCarthy, who has been good, and who knows what expensive free agent (Jon Lester? Max Scherzer?) they give too much money and too many years to over the winter.
But the lineup? Still Ellsbury, Teixiera, Brett Gardner (who's always going to be a good but not great hitter), Martin Prado, McCann, Beltran (presumably as a right fielder after off-season surgery on his elbow), someone to play shortstop, someone to DH when it's not Beltran, Ellsbury, Teixeira or McCann, and oh yeah, Mr. Rod will return, no doubt in true All-Star form after essentially not having played for two years, one assumes without chemical help, and reaching the age of 40. Uh-huh, he'll be great.
There won't be Jeter 2 watch next year. Expect empty seats on your TV screen. Because there's not a ton of wiggle room, the hitters who aren't hitting this year will be a year older, there are going to be injuries we haven't thought of yet and, just to reiterate, Mr. Rod will be back.
This isn't getting better soon, folks. It's possible the dark era of the 80s and early 90s is back.
The fat lady has sung. It got late early. Enter Sandman. Even the shouting is over. It's done. Forget it. The Yankees 2014 season has ended six weeks earlier than most other teams, and more than two months earlier than fans were hoping.
In some ways, it's amazing it lasted this long. Four out of five starting pitchers were gone for most of the year, although Michael Pineda is looking like he didn't lose anything (except games he gave to the bullpen) in the time he was out. And they keep dangling Masahiro Tanaka at us, promising he'll be back for the stretch run.
Let him stay rested. There ain't gonna be no stretch run. This puppy is over.
The funny thing is, the starting pitching turned out to be the least of this team's problems. Replacements like David Phelps, Brandon McCarthy, Chris Capuano (!) and a cast of thousands managed to pitch pretty well considering everything. That's why the games that were lost were close.
The bullpen has held up remarkably for a group of pitchers who are used pretty much every day and whose arms must be dangling by a thread. Lately there have been signs of fatigue, but how could there not be? This whole pitching staff has been held together with baling wire and chewing gum. They have performed above expectations given all the injuries.
But the hitting--and calling it that seems perverse--just never showed up this year. At Spring Training, we were salivating: Look at this deep lineup! Ellsbury to lead off! Jeter in his last year with something to prove! Teixeira back from his boatload of injuries! Additions of Beltran (the latest "always wanted to be a Yankee" to flop fairly seriously on getting his wish--remember Vernon Wells?), McCann (the next Thurman Munson? Maybe the next Rick Cerone) and Brian Roberts (because the Orioles were so stupid to let HIM go, right?).
The poster child for this year's Yankees is probably McCann. The Yankee farm system is notoriously thin, but the one thing it definitely has is a bunch of promising catchers. So the team goes out and spends beaucoup bucks on a not-quite-aging-but-almost hitter coming over from the National League (uh-oh) at that precise position. No trust in the farmhands? Does this remind anyone else of the pre-banishment George era?
What happens? The catcher of the present and the future comes out and hits .233 with a few home runs and a couple of runs batted in. He appears to call a decent game. So does Francisco Cervelli, and he actually has hit better than McCann when he could manage to walk onto a field this year.
Things aren't good in the Bronx, folks, and they ain't gonna get better soon. There's talk Brian Cashman's job might be on the line, but when you hogtie a general manager with massive contracts, tell him it's important to get under the arbitrary salary cap to save so you can spend more on aging free agents later (only to go back on that salary limit thing), and give up draft picks by signing other teams' free agents, how much can a general manager change? Will it matter if Cashman leaves after this year?
It's time to look at 2015, boys and girls, and that's not seeming a huge amount better. Or maybe even as good. The starting rotation--if the injured come back as planned--will be quite attractive, with Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, probably not Ivan Nova, at least at the beginning of the season, maybe McCarthy, who has been good, and who knows what expensive free agent (Jon Lester? Max Scherzer?) they give too much money and too many years to over the winter.
But the lineup? Still Ellsbury, Teixiera, Brett Gardner (who's always going to be a good but not great hitter), Martin Prado, McCann, Beltran (presumably as a right fielder after off-season surgery on his elbow), someone to play shortstop, someone to DH when it's not Beltran, Ellsbury, Teixeira or McCann, and oh yeah, Mr. Rod will return, no doubt in true All-Star form after essentially not having played for two years, one assumes without chemical help, and reaching the age of 40. Uh-huh, he'll be great.
There won't be Jeter 2 watch next year. Expect empty seats on your TV screen. Because there's not a ton of wiggle room, the hitters who aren't hitting this year will be a year older, there are going to be injuries we haven't thought of yet and, just to reiterate, Mr. Rod will be back.
This isn't getting better soon, folks. It's possible the dark era of the 80s and early 90s is back.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Sell, Sell, Sell
The Yankees should not be looking to trade for a starting pitcher or a slugger this July. They should be looking to get the best prospects they can.
Yes. I'm saying it: The Yankees should be sellers at this trading deadline.
With a team that can't get out of its own way like this one, where there is a grand total of one starting pitcher left from the five who began the season with the team (remember when that was going to be a strength?), when the infield has people name Yangervis and Zelous and the outfield has people named Zoilo and Ichiro (who still has a little baseball left in him), it's time to move on.
Let's say they have a run in them. It won't be much of one, but in the new American League East (mediocre division) it won't have to be. Maybe the Yankees can even reach the playoffs this year if they patch problems with what they can pick up for money (always an asset for this team) and the few prospects they have (Gary Sanchez, whatever happened to you?).
Do you seriously believe that this team, if by some miracle it entered the postseason, would be able to get past the first round?
Oh, but the team is still easily within striking distance of the playoffs, you'll say. Four games from a wildcard spot. Only five out of first place, with about 70 left to play. The Yankees don't fold. The Yankees don't give up. The Yankees don't rebuild. And what about our valiant Captain and his quest for a sixth championship? How can we turn our back on him?
Like this: Trade away what you can. There are teams that need experienced starting pitchers. Give them Hiroki Kuroda. There are teams desperate for a closer. David Robertson will be a free agent at the end of this year. Send him out. Someone might find some value in Brian Roberts or Ichiro. Get rid of them. Francisco Cervelli is starting to hit. A team might take a flyer on him.
I'd say try to trade Beltran, Teixeira and even Ellsbury, too, but those contracts aren't movable.
In return for the players you send away, you want good prospects. Starting pitchers who are a year or two away from the majors. A second baseman or (dare I say it) a shortstop who can really fill the holes left by two departed (ing) stars. A third baseman, because the idea that Mr. Rod is coming back next year to immediately be an All-Star again is ludicrous.
Look what happens when teams rebuild: They get into a position where they can be the Oakland A's and the Baltimore Orioles of 2014. They have a shot at being the new kind of dynasty, where the stars don't stay forever until they're shells of their former selves. (Sabathia, Teixeira, Beltran). They stay until they're ready to be ridiculously expensive (which isn't a problem for the Yankees) and demand too many years in a contract (which really, really is), and then they leave.
The Yankees did it with Robinson Cano this past winter. We'll pay you the money, they said, but we won't give you the years. In 2014, it looks like a tremendous mistake. In 2020, it won't.
Going forward, the old Yankee model of success doesn't sustain. You can't throw money at every problem and expect it to solve itself. Beltran, McCann, Ellsbury. A boatload of cash. This team isn't doing as well as the one from 2013 that had none of those names, no Teixeira, no Jeter, no Tanaka for the first half.
It's time to cut bait and head for shore. Wait for another day and come with younger worms.
Yes. I'm saying it: The Yankees should be sellers at this trading deadline.
With a team that can't get out of its own way like this one, where there is a grand total of one starting pitcher left from the five who began the season with the team (remember when that was going to be a strength?), when the infield has people name Yangervis and Zelous and the outfield has people named Zoilo and Ichiro (who still has a little baseball left in him), it's time to move on.
Let's say they have a run in them. It won't be much of one, but in the new American League East (mediocre division) it won't have to be. Maybe the Yankees can even reach the playoffs this year if they patch problems with what they can pick up for money (always an asset for this team) and the few prospects they have (Gary Sanchez, whatever happened to you?).
Do you seriously believe that this team, if by some miracle it entered the postseason, would be able to get past the first round?
Oh, but the team is still easily within striking distance of the playoffs, you'll say. Four games from a wildcard spot. Only five out of first place, with about 70 left to play. The Yankees don't fold. The Yankees don't give up. The Yankees don't rebuild. And what about our valiant Captain and his quest for a sixth championship? How can we turn our back on him?
Like this: Trade away what you can. There are teams that need experienced starting pitchers. Give them Hiroki Kuroda. There are teams desperate for a closer. David Robertson will be a free agent at the end of this year. Send him out. Someone might find some value in Brian Roberts or Ichiro. Get rid of them. Francisco Cervelli is starting to hit. A team might take a flyer on him.
I'd say try to trade Beltran, Teixeira and even Ellsbury, too, but those contracts aren't movable.
In return for the players you send away, you want good prospects. Starting pitchers who are a year or two away from the majors. A second baseman or (dare I say it) a shortstop who can really fill the holes left by two departed (ing) stars. A third baseman, because the idea that Mr. Rod is coming back next year to immediately be an All-Star again is ludicrous.
Look what happens when teams rebuild: They get into a position where they can be the Oakland A's and the Baltimore Orioles of 2014. They have a shot at being the new kind of dynasty, where the stars don't stay forever until they're shells of their former selves. (Sabathia, Teixeira, Beltran). They stay until they're ready to be ridiculously expensive (which isn't a problem for the Yankees) and demand too many years in a contract (which really, really is), and then they leave.
The Yankees did it with Robinson Cano this past winter. We'll pay you the money, they said, but we won't give you the years. In 2014, it looks like a tremendous mistake. In 2020, it won't.
Going forward, the old Yankee model of success doesn't sustain. You can't throw money at every problem and expect it to solve itself. Beltran, McCann, Ellsbury. A boatload of cash. This team isn't doing as well as the one from 2013 that had none of those names, no Teixeira, no Jeter, no Tanaka for the first half.
It's time to cut bait and head for shore. Wait for another day and come with younger worms.
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
The Strange Conundrum of Yangervis Solarte
I really enjoy Yangervis Solarte, so don't get me wrong: It's a terrible sign that he's leading the Yankees in so many offensive categories.
Solarte made the major league team, as we've heard the story a bazillion times now, after eight unremarkable seasons in the minors. Yeah, he makes contact, he won't embarrass you in the field, he's not a bad on-base guy and we're not sure about his power. Consider this: the guy he bumped off the roster was Eduardo Nunez.
The fact that Solarte, who is hitting around .300, is now tied for the team RBI lead with Mark Teixeira is a great story for Yankees Magazine, but an awful sign for a club that's looking frighteningly like the 2013 Yankees. Remember them? The team with no third baseman, no catcher and a meaningless September?
It's June. It's not April or May; it's June. The Yankees have been playing teams they're supposed to beat up on, and losing. The Seattle Mariners. The Minnesota Twins. The Chicago Cubs. Did I mention the Seattle Mariners? And after another agonizing loss to the Oakland A's (an actually GOOD team), they are five games out of first place, which is a miracle in itself.
Injuries--take your pick. Three-fifths of the starting rotation is gone, and that's not even the problem. David Phelps is pitching well. Chase Whitley, while not pitching deep into games, is being surprisingly competitive. Vidal Nuno... well, two out of three ain't bad. Literally.
The bullpen? Yes, there have been problems of late. The supposed closer-in-waiting Dellin Betances gave up (gasp!) a run Tuesday night. It'll happen. Even the sainted Mariano Rivera gave up a run every now and again. He's currently taking the express train to Cooperstown (the one that only takes five years, and stops at Jon Stewart's studio along the way to plug a book).
This is a team that's not hitting. That wasn't supposed to happen this year. There would be Ellsbury, we were told. There would be Beltran. You're gonna love McCann, we were told. Did you see what Soriano did after he came back last year? Being a Yankee again rejuvenated him. This Solarte kid will play once or twice a week, maybe. Fill in for aging infielders like Jeter (soon to be sainted himself, and taking the same train a year later), Brian Roberts (Brian Roberts?) and Kelly Johnson.
Instead, Solarte is one of the few bright spots. Masahiro Tanaka? Everything we were told, and more. A pleasure to watch him pitch every five days. Betances? Usually a treat as well. He strikes out batters before they're even sure they're at the plate. Very nice.
Then there's Solarte. And that's about it. Ichiro will have little runs where he looks like Ichiro. Ellsbury has been... okay. Jeter is getting great rounds of applause wherever he goes, which is nice, but he is indeed playing like Derek Jeter, only 40 years old.
We do like McCann, but it would be nice if he hit, too.
Teixeira is back, but how long will that last? Beltran is promised soon, but you can ask the same question about him. Ivan Nova is gone for the year. Michael Pineda just got moved to the 60-day DL. Again. CC Sabathia is excited about playing catch standing up.
Didn't I just have this dream? Wasn't this the 2013 squad, and weren't we told this year would be different?
This year is different. This year, we have Yangervis Solarte.
Solarte made the major league team, as we've heard the story a bazillion times now, after eight unremarkable seasons in the minors. Yeah, he makes contact, he won't embarrass you in the field, he's not a bad on-base guy and we're not sure about his power. Consider this: the guy he bumped off the roster was Eduardo Nunez.
The fact that Solarte, who is hitting around .300, is now tied for the team RBI lead with Mark Teixeira is a great story for Yankees Magazine, but an awful sign for a club that's looking frighteningly like the 2013 Yankees. Remember them? The team with no third baseman, no catcher and a meaningless September?
It's June. It's not April or May; it's June. The Yankees have been playing teams they're supposed to beat up on, and losing. The Seattle Mariners. The Minnesota Twins. The Chicago Cubs. Did I mention the Seattle Mariners? And after another agonizing loss to the Oakland A's (an actually GOOD team), they are five games out of first place, which is a miracle in itself.
Injuries--take your pick. Three-fifths of the starting rotation is gone, and that's not even the problem. David Phelps is pitching well. Chase Whitley, while not pitching deep into games, is being surprisingly competitive. Vidal Nuno... well, two out of three ain't bad. Literally.
The bullpen? Yes, there have been problems of late. The supposed closer-in-waiting Dellin Betances gave up (gasp!) a run Tuesday night. It'll happen. Even the sainted Mariano Rivera gave up a run every now and again. He's currently taking the express train to Cooperstown (the one that only takes five years, and stops at Jon Stewart's studio along the way to plug a book).
This is a team that's not hitting. That wasn't supposed to happen this year. There would be Ellsbury, we were told. There would be Beltran. You're gonna love McCann, we were told. Did you see what Soriano did after he came back last year? Being a Yankee again rejuvenated him. This Solarte kid will play once or twice a week, maybe. Fill in for aging infielders like Jeter (soon to be sainted himself, and taking the same train a year later), Brian Roberts (Brian Roberts?) and Kelly Johnson.
Instead, Solarte is one of the few bright spots. Masahiro Tanaka? Everything we were told, and more. A pleasure to watch him pitch every five days. Betances? Usually a treat as well. He strikes out batters before they're even sure they're at the plate. Very nice.
Then there's Solarte. And that's about it. Ichiro will have little runs where he looks like Ichiro. Ellsbury has been... okay. Jeter is getting great rounds of applause wherever he goes, which is nice, but he is indeed playing like Derek Jeter, only 40 years old.
We do like McCann, but it would be nice if he hit, too.
Teixeira is back, but how long will that last? Beltran is promised soon, but you can ask the same question about him. Ivan Nova is gone for the year. Michael Pineda just got moved to the 60-day DL. Again. CC Sabathia is excited about playing catch standing up.
Didn't I just have this dream? Wasn't this the 2013 squad, and weren't we told this year would be different?
This year is different. This year, we have Yangervis Solarte.
Monday, May 12, 2014
Deja Vu All Over Again
So, let's sum up, shall we?
On the night of his 89th birthday, Yogi Berra attends a Yankee game vs. the "crosstown rival" Mets. Now, let's forget that the "crosstown rival" stuff is nonsense; the Mets are rivals the Yankees the same way the New York Rangers are rivals.
So the Mets come from behind--twice--and beat the Yankees 9-7. Okay. It's one game.
But the revelations that come out after the game are staggering, and they bring to mind one of Mr. Berra's most memorable sayings, whether he said it or not.
Already on the disabled list are Ivan Nova (for the whole year), Michael Pineda (supposedly 3-4 weeks, but we've heard THAT before), and CC Sabathia, a mere 60% of the starting rotation. Here comes more of David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, Alfredo Aceves and who knows who else starting for the Yankees.
But tonight we hear that Mark Teixeira is playing with bad legs--again. Carlos Beltran hyperextended his elbow and was "very upset." Shawn Kelley has a bad back and can't pitch. Ichiro Suzuki is banged up and was not available tonight.
Yes, friends, it's deja vu all over again.
This team is starting to resemble last year's in a truly unsettling fashion. Everyone who could possibly be hurt is getting hurt. They're not coming back as quickly as promised. And the ones who are left--Jeter, Ellsbury (he's just a question of time), Soriano, McCann--are not playing up to the "backs of their baseball cards".
Remember how last year April looked really good and then reality started to set in? Consider that John Ryan Murphy is hitting over .400, and Yangervis Solarte, a career minor leaguer, is leading the team in RBIs, something that Brian Cashman himself said publicly on Monday should not be considered a good thing, and shouldn't be expected to last.
Uh-oh. With the Orioles on the upsurge, the Red Sox starting to remember how to play and the Rays unlikely to stay this bad for long, things aren't looking good for the Yankees in 2014. Consider that Jeter's last season is starting to play like Mariano Rivera's--the end of September could be less about a pennant race and more about the appropriate way to say goodbye.
And then next year, Ellsbury, McCann and Masahiro Tanaka might be all we have left.
But don't worry, Mr. Rod will be back.
On the night of his 89th birthday, Yogi Berra attends a Yankee game vs. the "crosstown rival" Mets. Now, let's forget that the "crosstown rival" stuff is nonsense; the Mets are rivals the Yankees the same way the New York Rangers are rivals.
So the Mets come from behind--twice--and beat the Yankees 9-7. Okay. It's one game.
But the revelations that come out after the game are staggering, and they bring to mind one of Mr. Berra's most memorable sayings, whether he said it or not.
Already on the disabled list are Ivan Nova (for the whole year), Michael Pineda (supposedly 3-4 weeks, but we've heard THAT before), and CC Sabathia, a mere 60% of the starting rotation. Here comes more of David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, Alfredo Aceves and who knows who else starting for the Yankees.
But tonight we hear that Mark Teixeira is playing with bad legs--again. Carlos Beltran hyperextended his elbow and was "very upset." Shawn Kelley has a bad back and can't pitch. Ichiro Suzuki is banged up and was not available tonight.
Yes, friends, it's deja vu all over again.
This team is starting to resemble last year's in a truly unsettling fashion. Everyone who could possibly be hurt is getting hurt. They're not coming back as quickly as promised. And the ones who are left--Jeter, Ellsbury (he's just a question of time), Soriano, McCann--are not playing up to the "backs of their baseball cards".
Remember how last year April looked really good and then reality started to set in? Consider that John Ryan Murphy is hitting over .400, and Yangervis Solarte, a career minor leaguer, is leading the team in RBIs, something that Brian Cashman himself said publicly on Monday should not be considered a good thing, and shouldn't be expected to last.
Uh-oh. With the Orioles on the upsurge, the Red Sox starting to remember how to play and the Rays unlikely to stay this bad for long, things aren't looking good for the Yankees in 2014. Consider that Jeter's last season is starting to play like Mariano Rivera's--the end of September could be less about a pennant race and more about the appropriate way to say goodbye.
And then next year, Ellsbury, McCann and Masahiro Tanaka might be all we have left.
But don't worry, Mr. Rod will be back.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
PredicTIONs! Predictions!
What, nobody remembers Fiddler on the Roof?
With the long, cold, lonely winter finally ending (at least on the calendar, if not the thermometer), we open our eyes this morning to the thought that Opening Day, the only religious holiday on my calendar--or thermometer--is only five days away. Couldn't come soon enough.
I don't do predictions about the baseball season other than it will undoubtedly be better than the non-baseball season, which should be mandated by law to last no more than two weeks, in my humble opinion. But I think there are a few safe truths we can extrapolate from the hideous season and off-season just past.
First: The Yankees will be better this year than they were in 2013.
This is something of a no-brainer. The team bus would have to fall off a causeway traveling to a road exhibition game for the team to be worse than it was last year. Keep in mind Lyle Overbay as your everyday first baseman--and he was one of the best players on the field. A full season of Eduardo Nunez. Someone pretending to be Vernon Wells in left field. Ichiro's ghost in right.
The entire cast of Gilligan's Island playing third base. Was there even a catcher? I seem to remember the ball simply rolling to the backstop a lot.
A starting rotation that had a resemblance to a major league group, but only sometimes. A bullpen that held things together, mostly because Mariano Rivera had decided he wasn't going out looking like an old man.
Yeah, 2013 was a million laughs for Yankee fans. So good riddance to that, and yes, the team pretty much has to improve this year, if only based on the law of averages.
Second: The starting pitching will be better.
It looks like Masahiro Tanaka is the real thing, and that can't be anything but good. He's 25, he's got a cut fastball or slider or something that seems to move about eight feet, and he can throw hard when he needs to. He is exactly what the Yankees haven't had for years--a young stud.
Ivan Nova might actually turn into a reliable pitcher this year. There are signs, some of which are simply in Nova's new, humbler demeanor that he's maturing emotionally. Can't hurt.
Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia are question marks right now. You have to trust that CC, an intelligent pitcher with a lot of weapons, will figure it out. You also have to hope that Pineda's arm doesn't fall off at some point.
More rest must be found for Hiroki Kuroda. I'm guessing this isn't news to Larry Rothschild or Joe Girardi.
Third: Everybody's going to talk about age and health forever.
The infield, which some scouts are apparently saying is the worst on the planet (according to Jon Heyman, who often is right) certainly has lots of questions. Like who that guy is at third base. You can't believe the Yankees didn't expect Mr. Rod to be out all year, and yet there was no discernible attempt to fill the slot. Do they think Mr. Rod will come back next year, shake his shoulders and be the chemically enhanced MVP he was a few years ago?
Meanwhile, back at first base, Mark Teixeira will try to convince us that he's 100% better, despite evidence that he was on a decline--and a fairly steep one--BEFORE he hurt his wrist in last year's World Baseball Meaninglessness. Without Robinson "$175-million is disrespecting me" Cano to hit home runs in front of or behind him, Tex will have to prove himself again. Because Brian Roberts, whether he gets hurt or not, ain't Robinson Cano.
Fourth: The bullpen will be fine.
Wanna know why? Because that has always been the shining strength of Joe Girardi's Yankee management. He starts with a group of guys who seem like the Bad News Bears and turns them into an effective unit. It might take a little longer this time, but believe it: By July, there will be no grumbles about the bullpen.
Fifth: Ichiro is going to get traded.
Think about it: The Yankees know they have an outfield of Gardner, Ellsbury and Beltran, with guest appearances from Alfonso Soriano, going into this year. And yet, whose face have you seen in every YES spring training game? Ichi himself. You think they're not showcasing him for other teams? You think he's not helping by hitting about .150? He'll go, the Yankees will eat some of his contract, and they'll get a prospect you'll probably never hear about again. It was silly of them to give him the extra two years anyway.
Sixth: David Robertson won't be Mariano Rivera.
Wow--shocker, huh? The next guy to pitch the ninth inning regularly for the Yankees WON'T be the greatest closer who ever lived? We want our money back! However, Robertson will be fine. He'll get people out, blow the occasional save (which Mo did, too, if we're being honest) and keep the mentality he needs to be back the next night. Over 600 saves in his future? Um... I don't think so. Enough to get our nerves on edge when we realize this is his walk year? Could be.
Seventh: Derek Jeter will have a very good year.
He's Derek Jeter. End of story.
With the long, cold, lonely winter finally ending (at least on the calendar, if not the thermometer), we open our eyes this morning to the thought that Opening Day, the only religious holiday on my calendar--or thermometer--is only five days away. Couldn't come soon enough.
I don't do predictions about the baseball season other than it will undoubtedly be better than the non-baseball season, which should be mandated by law to last no more than two weeks, in my humble opinion. But I think there are a few safe truths we can extrapolate from the hideous season and off-season just past.
First: The Yankees will be better this year than they were in 2013.
This is something of a no-brainer. The team bus would have to fall off a causeway traveling to a road exhibition game for the team to be worse than it was last year. Keep in mind Lyle Overbay as your everyday first baseman--and he was one of the best players on the field. A full season of Eduardo Nunez. Someone pretending to be Vernon Wells in left field. Ichiro's ghost in right.
The entire cast of Gilligan's Island playing third base. Was there even a catcher? I seem to remember the ball simply rolling to the backstop a lot.
A starting rotation that had a resemblance to a major league group, but only sometimes. A bullpen that held things together, mostly because Mariano Rivera had decided he wasn't going out looking like an old man.
Yeah, 2013 was a million laughs for Yankee fans. So good riddance to that, and yes, the team pretty much has to improve this year, if only based on the law of averages.
Second: The starting pitching will be better.
It looks like Masahiro Tanaka is the real thing, and that can't be anything but good. He's 25, he's got a cut fastball or slider or something that seems to move about eight feet, and he can throw hard when he needs to. He is exactly what the Yankees haven't had for years--a young stud.
Ivan Nova might actually turn into a reliable pitcher this year. There are signs, some of which are simply in Nova's new, humbler demeanor that he's maturing emotionally. Can't hurt.
Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia are question marks right now. You have to trust that CC, an intelligent pitcher with a lot of weapons, will figure it out. You also have to hope that Pineda's arm doesn't fall off at some point.
More rest must be found for Hiroki Kuroda. I'm guessing this isn't news to Larry Rothschild or Joe Girardi.
Third: Everybody's going to talk about age and health forever.
The infield, which some scouts are apparently saying is the worst on the planet (according to Jon Heyman, who often is right) certainly has lots of questions. Like who that guy is at third base. You can't believe the Yankees didn't expect Mr. Rod to be out all year, and yet there was no discernible attempt to fill the slot. Do they think Mr. Rod will come back next year, shake his shoulders and be the chemically enhanced MVP he was a few years ago?
Meanwhile, back at first base, Mark Teixeira will try to convince us that he's 100% better, despite evidence that he was on a decline--and a fairly steep one--BEFORE he hurt his wrist in last year's World Baseball Meaninglessness. Without Robinson "$175-million is disrespecting me" Cano to hit home runs in front of or behind him, Tex will have to prove himself again. Because Brian Roberts, whether he gets hurt or not, ain't Robinson Cano.
Fourth: The bullpen will be fine.
Wanna know why? Because that has always been the shining strength of Joe Girardi's Yankee management. He starts with a group of guys who seem like the Bad News Bears and turns them into an effective unit. It might take a little longer this time, but believe it: By July, there will be no grumbles about the bullpen.
Fifth: Ichiro is going to get traded.
Think about it: The Yankees know they have an outfield of Gardner, Ellsbury and Beltran, with guest appearances from Alfonso Soriano, going into this year. And yet, whose face have you seen in every YES spring training game? Ichi himself. You think they're not showcasing him for other teams? You think he's not helping by hitting about .150? He'll go, the Yankees will eat some of his contract, and they'll get a prospect you'll probably never hear about again. It was silly of them to give him the extra two years anyway.
Sixth: David Robertson won't be Mariano Rivera.
Wow--shocker, huh? The next guy to pitch the ninth inning regularly for the Yankees WON'T be the greatest closer who ever lived? We want our money back! However, Robertson will be fine. He'll get people out, blow the occasional save (which Mo did, too, if we're being honest) and keep the mentality he needs to be back the next night. Over 600 saves in his future? Um... I don't think so. Enough to get our nerves on edge when we realize this is his walk year? Could be.
Seventh: Derek Jeter will have a very good year.
He's Derek Jeter. End of story.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
It's Been a Long, Cold, Lonely Winter
So let's sum up:
When this offseason began, ignominiously, the issues facing the Yankees were as follows:
Well, Derek Jeter is coming back. So there's that.
This offseason might not have hit all its expectations, but it certainly hasn't been Brian Cashman's darkest hour, either. The outfield, which didn't need much help (well, less than the infield, anyway), got Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox and Brett Gardner, um, from the Yankees, but signed for five more years, counting this one. Wells, who last year was over the moon about being a Yankee, was ceremoniously kicked to the curb--and rightfully so, despite his lovely April and May in 2013--in favor of Carlos Beltran, who apparently had been a Yankee-in-waiting since roughly the DiMaggio era.
Cano? Not so much.
On the infield, there will be a Mark Teixeira who readily admits he doesn't know how much he can get out of his surgically repaired wrist, and no backup for him at first; Brian Roberts, whose endorsements these days come from the likes of Band-Aid and Ben Gay; the last tour of the Captain, with a right ankle that's more machine than man, now; and someone standing around third base. It's, let's say, a question mark. I would not be surprised to see an infielder (or two!) added before spring training is over, as Wells and Lyle Overbay were last year.
Masahiro Tanaka will indeed be a member of the starting rotation, and the $189-million budget will not. Instead, he'll be joined by CC Sabathia, or whoever that is in the oversized uniform, Hiroki Kuroda, he of the advancing age and declining second halves, Ivan Nova and his bipolar curve ball, and any one of a dozen possible fifth starters. It's possible that Kelly Johnson, who is currently slotted to play third, short, second or first and maybe some outfield, is being groomed for that role as well.
David Robertson, who had been told time and again that he was not being "handed" the closer's role, will be the closer. Unless Kyra Sedgwick cares to reassume the role. Elsewhere in the bullpen, it's anybody's guess. Injured former Red Sox appear to be the in thing these days, with the hope that maybe they can show up by September. Okay. (Expect some movement in the bullpen, with the losers of the fifth-starter derby surely to be members of the pen fairly soon.)
Nobody will trade for the once-valiant Ichiro, the 2012 version of the 2013 Alfonso Soriano, who showed up and took over as an offensive force when no one expected it. No word on who will be the 2014 version until late July at the earliest. So one of the greatest singles hitters in baseball history will be a pinch hitter.
And then there is Brian McCann, who for all the world looks like the best signing of the winter. Gritty, talented, stalwart, with comparisons being made to Thurman Munson (!), McCann is now shoving people like Sanchez and Murphy into the category of prized trading chips. We'll see who's still in camp when the dust settles.
And then there's Derek Jeter. It's the opposite of a secret now that this will be #2's last campaign, and much will be made about "winning this one for the Captain." And that would be nice, but is it plausible?
Will this team be better than the woeful (and yet over-500) 2013 Yankees? Unless the same Perfect Storm of injuries strikes, byte your tongue, it pretty much has to be. Tanaka and McCann alone make it better. Ellsbury showing Gardner how to be more aggressive on the bases surely won't hurt. Girardi's great strength is in handling a bullpen, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt there. Yes, this team will be better; it'll score more runs and hopefully prevent a few more.
Robertson will be fine in the ninth inning. He won't be as dependable as Mo, mostly because in the history of Man, that's only happened once. We're going to have to get used to what every other team in the sport knows: A closer isn't automatic.
Will it be good enough to win a championship? They're not going to be anybody's pick before the season begins. That's okay, nobody picked Boston last year. This team should be good enough to get to the playoffs, and after that it's a question of who the hottest team of the moment is. That can be anybody.
So it should at least be an entertaining season. Jeter will be beatified in pretty much every city, as was the noble Mo last year. Tanaka, I'm betting, will impress, if not vie for the Cy. I have faith that CC will find ways to get people out. I refuse to believe that the Captain will not bounce back through sheer determination and the realization that there is no next year.
And look at the bright side: There won't be any Mr. Rod this year.
Given the kind of winter we've had and are having, one thing is for certain: Opening Day can't possibly come fast enough.
When this offseason began, ignominiously, the issues facing the Yankees were as follows:
- Re-sign Robinson Cano, which everyone agreed would happen
- Pursue Masahiro Tanaka, assuming the posting fee, which would be high, would be counted outside the luxury tax, since the budget HAD to remain under $189-million
- Find some infield help because it was a decent bet there'd be no Mr. Rod this season
- There was no great need for outfielders, as the Yankees were flush with them, including Vernon Wells, Ichiro Suzuki and Alfonso Soriano, so no worries there
- Get Derek Jeter started on his next three or four years in pinstripes healthy
- Maybe find a closer to replace Mo, since David Robertson is "untested" in the role
- Sign a decent catcher to fill in until John Ryan ("don't call me J.R.") Murphy or Gary Sanchez is ready.
Well, Derek Jeter is coming back. So there's that.
This offseason might not have hit all its expectations, but it certainly hasn't been Brian Cashman's darkest hour, either. The outfield, which didn't need much help (well, less than the infield, anyway), got Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox and Brett Gardner, um, from the Yankees, but signed for five more years, counting this one. Wells, who last year was over the moon about being a Yankee, was ceremoniously kicked to the curb--and rightfully so, despite his lovely April and May in 2013--in favor of Carlos Beltran, who apparently had been a Yankee-in-waiting since roughly the DiMaggio era.
Cano? Not so much.
On the infield, there will be a Mark Teixeira who readily admits he doesn't know how much he can get out of his surgically repaired wrist, and no backup for him at first; Brian Roberts, whose endorsements these days come from the likes of Band-Aid and Ben Gay; the last tour of the Captain, with a right ankle that's more machine than man, now; and someone standing around third base. It's, let's say, a question mark. I would not be surprised to see an infielder (or two!) added before spring training is over, as Wells and Lyle Overbay were last year.
Masahiro Tanaka will indeed be a member of the starting rotation, and the $189-million budget will not. Instead, he'll be joined by CC Sabathia, or whoever that is in the oversized uniform, Hiroki Kuroda, he of the advancing age and declining second halves, Ivan Nova and his bipolar curve ball, and any one of a dozen possible fifth starters. It's possible that Kelly Johnson, who is currently slotted to play third, short, second or first and maybe some outfield, is being groomed for that role as well.
David Robertson, who had been told time and again that he was not being "handed" the closer's role, will be the closer. Unless Kyra Sedgwick cares to reassume the role. Elsewhere in the bullpen, it's anybody's guess. Injured former Red Sox appear to be the in thing these days, with the hope that maybe they can show up by September. Okay. (Expect some movement in the bullpen, with the losers of the fifth-starter derby surely to be members of the pen fairly soon.)
Nobody will trade for the once-valiant Ichiro, the 2012 version of the 2013 Alfonso Soriano, who showed up and took over as an offensive force when no one expected it. No word on who will be the 2014 version until late July at the earliest. So one of the greatest singles hitters in baseball history will be a pinch hitter.
And then there is Brian McCann, who for all the world looks like the best signing of the winter. Gritty, talented, stalwart, with comparisons being made to Thurman Munson (!), McCann is now shoving people like Sanchez and Murphy into the category of prized trading chips. We'll see who's still in camp when the dust settles.
And then there's Derek Jeter. It's the opposite of a secret now that this will be #2's last campaign, and much will be made about "winning this one for the Captain." And that would be nice, but is it plausible?
Will this team be better than the woeful (and yet over-500) 2013 Yankees? Unless the same Perfect Storm of injuries strikes, byte your tongue, it pretty much has to be. Tanaka and McCann alone make it better. Ellsbury showing Gardner how to be more aggressive on the bases surely won't hurt. Girardi's great strength is in handling a bullpen, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt there. Yes, this team will be better; it'll score more runs and hopefully prevent a few more.
Robertson will be fine in the ninth inning. He won't be as dependable as Mo, mostly because in the history of Man, that's only happened once. We're going to have to get used to what every other team in the sport knows: A closer isn't automatic.
Will it be good enough to win a championship? They're not going to be anybody's pick before the season begins. That's okay, nobody picked Boston last year. This team should be good enough to get to the playoffs, and after that it's a question of who the hottest team of the moment is. That can be anybody.
So it should at least be an entertaining season. Jeter will be beatified in pretty much every city, as was the noble Mo last year. Tanaka, I'm betting, will impress, if not vie for the Cy. I have faith that CC will find ways to get people out. I refuse to believe that the Captain will not bounce back through sheer determination and the realization that there is no next year.
And look at the bright side: There won't be any Mr. Rod this year.
Given the kind of winter we've had and are having, one thing is for certain: Opening Day can't possibly come fast enough.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)