... This would be a potential Opening Day lineup for the 2016 Yankees:
8 Jacoby Ellsbury
7 Brett Gardner
9 Carlos Beltran
3 Mark Teixeira
DH Mr. Rod
2 Brian McCann
4 Starlin Castro
5 Chase Headley
6 Didi Gregorius
That's not bad. It isn't Murderers Row, but it's not bad.
Castro, the newest acquisition, is an interesting Yankee. While I would have been content to see what Rob Refsnyder has in him, the team clearly wasn't comfortable with him alone or in a platoon with Dustin Ackley. They played Refsnyder as little as they could when he was at the Major League level last year, as if there was a secret about him they didn't want exposed. So I'm guessing there's some information we're not getting.
I would not be surprised to see Gardner's name exit the second position in that lineup, assuming the Yankees can get something worthwhile for him. Given the second half he's had in the past two seasons, Gardner is getting something of a reputation as a player who tries too hard and tires himself out or won't let the team know when he's injured. Other teams pay attention to such things and shy away from them.
The starting rotation is a fine one if everyone stays healthy, which is much like saying that it would be wonderful if Donald Trump is elected president, assuming he completely changes everything about himself before Inauguration Day. It would be great if it were possible, but there's pretty much no chance of that happening.
The bullpen is considerably weaker than it was just 10 days ago. Adam Warren is gone, which hurts both the pen and the starting rotation, and if Bryan Mitchell is the likely successor, he's going to have to show more than he did last year. Justin Wilson for a couple of minor league starters with ERAs over 4? It's a head scratcher.
But if one was listening last week during the Winter Meetings (and one was) it was obvious Brian Cashman does not think this is the team we'll see on Opening Day. He clearly doesn't think this is the team that's coming to Spring Training. It might not be the team that makes it to Christmas.
So it's been something of a surprising offseason so far. That lineup looks interesting (although I am not one who thinks Tex and Mr. Rod will be as good this season as last, particularly if they don't get more rest in the first half), but the strength of the team has been damaged by trades.
More to come? I'm willing to bet on it.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Thursday, December 3, 2015
GMs Will Meet. The Yankees Will Hang Around.
Next week's General Manager meetings for Major League Baseball will probably see quite a bit of activity in free agent signings and trades. Big names will move to new teams. Truckloads of money will change hands. There will be rumors, mistakes, reports and more rumors, and Yankees Hot Stove (my new favorite winter TV show because I'm jonesing bad for baseball) will lose its collective mind trying to report on things that haven't happened yet.
In other words, business as usual.
Don't expect the Yankees to be huge players next week. Yes, Bombers fans, we know you're desperate to steal some thunder from those freakin' Red Sox and their (predictable, read below) David Price signing. Sure, what we have so far is last year's so-so team a year older. Absolutely, this team's history indicates it will open up Fort Knox and back it up to some free agent's backyard.
Not this year.
Show me the position where the Yankees have flexibility. Let's see which huge contracts they can move to make room for new talent. Identify the free agent who will make an impact on the team as it exists and lead it to a better finish than in 2015.
That's right. There are none of those things.
Because they have operated like the Yankees in the past, the Yankees are stuck with contracts that couldn't be moved with a 747 (Teixeira, Sabathia, Mr. Rod, Ellsbury, McCann, Headley). So that means we would have to watch the team pay a ton of money to some of these guys--most of whom have major no-trade clauses in their contracts--not to play for them in order to bring in someone else. Is that better?
There are some signs of progress. Brian Cashman has gotten enough control that draft picks are being protected. Young players (Greg Bird, Rob Refsnyder, Luis Severino) are coming up and being allowed to play in place of dusty old stars. The "formula" that produced Jeter, Williams, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte is at least being considered.
But for 2016, there won't be much change. There can't be. Does that bode well for the coming season? Not really, no. Expect more decline from some aging players. Don't even imagine that at least two of the starting five pitchers will not spend some time on the disabled list, and I don't mean a couple of weeks. Assume that Carlos Beltran will allow every fly ball hit to right field to fall in front of him.
I don't see this as a playoff team. Hal Steinbrenner can go on all he likes about how each year a "championship-caliber" team will be put on the field, but this is not going to be one unless big moves are made. Big moves are not going to be made.
We'll have Ellsbury in center. Beltran in right. Headley at third. Didi at short. Refsndyer/Ackley at second. Tex at first, until he gets hurt, at which time it'll be Bird, which is fine with me. Brett Gardner in left? Probably the most likely to be traded, probably for a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which isn't exactly huge impact.
McCann will catch, but J.R. Murphy will not be backing up because he has earned the chance to start elsewhere. Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez backing up, probably Romine because they won't want Sanchez to sit five days a week.
Pitching: Tanaka (the default ace because there isn't another), Severino (the ace in the making), Sabathia (the ghost of aces past), Pineda (the ace a third to half of the time), and Eovaldi (he's really learning to be an ace now, they'll say). Inspiring huge amounts of confidence? Not so much.
Expect there to be some buzz around the Yankees next week, but not much in the way of big moves. Tweaks, changes, some new faces, but not anybody who'll play every day. It's just not all that possible. This might be a great team in 2017 or (more likely) 2018, but not in 2016.
But of course President Trump is a big Yankee fan, so maybe he'll just bomb all the other teams and that'll make this one seem so much better...
In other words, business as usual.
Don't expect the Yankees to be huge players next week. Yes, Bombers fans, we know you're desperate to steal some thunder from those freakin' Red Sox and their (predictable, read below) David Price signing. Sure, what we have so far is last year's so-so team a year older. Absolutely, this team's history indicates it will open up Fort Knox and back it up to some free agent's backyard.
Not this year.
Show me the position where the Yankees have flexibility. Let's see which huge contracts they can move to make room for new talent. Identify the free agent who will make an impact on the team as it exists and lead it to a better finish than in 2015.
That's right. There are none of those things.
Because they have operated like the Yankees in the past, the Yankees are stuck with contracts that couldn't be moved with a 747 (Teixeira, Sabathia, Mr. Rod, Ellsbury, McCann, Headley). So that means we would have to watch the team pay a ton of money to some of these guys--most of whom have major no-trade clauses in their contracts--not to play for them in order to bring in someone else. Is that better?
There are some signs of progress. Brian Cashman has gotten enough control that draft picks are being protected. Young players (Greg Bird, Rob Refsnyder, Luis Severino) are coming up and being allowed to play in place of dusty old stars. The "formula" that produced Jeter, Williams, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte is at least being considered.
But for 2016, there won't be much change. There can't be. Does that bode well for the coming season? Not really, no. Expect more decline from some aging players. Don't even imagine that at least two of the starting five pitchers will not spend some time on the disabled list, and I don't mean a couple of weeks. Assume that Carlos Beltran will allow every fly ball hit to right field to fall in front of him.
I don't see this as a playoff team. Hal Steinbrenner can go on all he likes about how each year a "championship-caliber" team will be put on the field, but this is not going to be one unless big moves are made. Big moves are not going to be made.
We'll have Ellsbury in center. Beltran in right. Headley at third. Didi at short. Refsndyer/Ackley at second. Tex at first, until he gets hurt, at which time it'll be Bird, which is fine with me. Brett Gardner in left? Probably the most likely to be traded, probably for a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which isn't exactly huge impact.
McCann will catch, but J.R. Murphy will not be backing up because he has earned the chance to start elsewhere. Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez backing up, probably Romine because they won't want Sanchez to sit five days a week.
Pitching: Tanaka (the default ace because there isn't another), Severino (the ace in the making), Sabathia (the ghost of aces past), Pineda (the ace a third to half of the time), and Eovaldi (he's really learning to be an ace now, they'll say). Inspiring huge amounts of confidence? Not so much.
Expect there to be some buzz around the Yankees next week, but not much in the way of big moves. Tweaks, changes, some new faces, but not anybody who'll play every day. It's just not all that possible. This might be a great team in 2017 or (more likely) 2018, but not in 2016.
But of course President Trump is a big Yankee fan, so maybe he'll just bomb all the other teams and that'll make this one seem so much better...
Sunday, October 25, 2015
Let's Go... Ah, I'll See You in February
This is all I'll say: If you are currently wearing a Mets jersey, the first one you've ever owned, that you did not have two weeks ago, I have no respect for your fandom.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
And So, It Goes
I am not pleased about being right. (See below, last two paragraphs.)
As expected, the Yankees checked out after one game--actually, they checked out after one inning--of the playoffs and winter came early this year. That's not at all a surprise because this was never a great team, but it is a disappointment.
But it's time now to move on and consider what the 2016 Yankees will look like six months from now when we'll have forgotten how we feel today and the Boston Red Sox will be the proud new owners of a shiny David Price.
Make no mistake that the Sox will be better next year. The Blue Jays, minus Price, will still be very good but not as good unless there's another free agent pitcher out there they can conjure up. They might very well be the World Champion Blue Jays at that point and such events tend to change things a bit.
So the competition will be intense, which is as it should be. Will Tampa and Baltimore play a role? Yes, but probably not a really big one--the Orioles are losing half their team to free agency and won't open up the bank to keep them. The Rays can always make young pitchers appear but the atmosphere in that horror show in Tampa is poisonous and besides, they don't have any money. So look at it as a three-team race in 2016.
Assuming the Yankees are contending. That's not a certainty at this point.
Before this season began, all the baseball pundits were saying that the Yankees probably wouldn't be much of a factor unless Mr. Rod, Beltran, McCann and Teixeira all had bounce back years, and that wasn't likely to happen. Except it did, for a while. For the first half of the season, Mr. Rod looked like a superstar again, Tex was playing as if he'd never hurt his... what was it that time? McCann never hit for much average but he was knocking them out of the park and after April, Beltran started to hit well and continued to do so until last night.
He was the only one, but that's the way it goes. Tex got hurt, McCann threw out baserunners and gave up the whole hitting thing and Mr. Rod hit 40 or 40 hit him. He looked old and worn out, as a 40-year-old man who hadn't played baseball regularly in two years might look.
Can we expect all of them to do as well next year as they did for the first half of this year? No. Having a perfect storm happen twice consecutively is unrealistic. And if I were Brian Cashman--which I'm undeniably not--I'd be looking at the following solutions to problems.
First: Try to move Brett Gardner to another team for a starting pitcher. I'd say try to trade Jacoby Ellsbury and his injured everything, but at this point the Seven Santini Brothers couldn't move that contract so we move to the next possibility. Gardner is a very good player but for both of the past two seasons he has been a deficit after August 15 and that is not a promising recipe for success, nor can it be expected to change unless he starts playing only four games a week.
Second: Trust the kids. Let Rob Refsnyder be your starting second baseman next year. Thank goodness the Stephen Drew Era has ended, let Dustin Ackley back up everybody on the infield instead of Brendan Ryan and put Refsnyder at second. He hits better than anyone we've seen there since Cano and he does not appear to be a liability defensively, which was what we'd been led to believe.
Greg Bird must be on the major league roster in April. Yes, Teixeira (on the last year of an onerous contract) will presumably be healthy, but Bird has proven he belongs, he has nothing left to prove in AAA and either way, Tex is gone the end of next season, so trading Bird makes no sense. Bring him up and let him play. He was putting up Teixeira-like numbers anyway and can play at first.
Let Beltran be your left-handed DH. He is no longer a viable right fielder. Too many balls that any average outfielder would have caught fall in front of him as he trots on over to pick them up. The man can hit (and next year will be his last with the Yankees), but Mr. Rod needs the days off and Beltran is clearly a DH who has been forced into a fielding position.
See if anyone wants to trade for McCann or Headley. The Yankees would have to eat some money on either deal because they overpaid, but the McCann thing really never made sense with the wealth of young catchers the Yankees have under team control. John Ryan (Please Don't Call Me JR) Murphy hit well and caught well all year. Gary Sanchez is right behind him and so is Austin Romine. Move McCann if you McCan. Headley for some reason forgot he was a Gold Glove third baseman this year and couldn't throw about half the time. His offense never got much better than okay. Maybe that's the future position for Dustin Ackley.
Get more starting pitching. Here's the projected rotation for 2016: Tanaka (ticking time bomb of an elbow), Pineda (always an injury waiting to happen, with flashes of magnificence in between), Nova (probably better the farther he gets from his Tommy John surgery), Sabathia (out of rehab but with a knee that's never going to get better, brace or no brace) and Eovaldi (yeah, he won 14 games but he got all the runs the Yankees scored this year). Adam Warren, the world's most patient man, will be the sixth starter/long relief guy. Or trade bait.
No, the Yankees aren't getting Price. The Red Sox will offer a ridiculous contract and he'll take it. The Yankees won't mind the money but won't want to give him the years, and they'll be right. Who else is available this offseason? You'll hear names like Zack Greinke and Jeff Samardzjia, but that's only because they're hard to spell. Greinke was amazing this year, but has to opt out of an upcoming three years at $71-million, meaning the Yankees would need to offer a contract taking him at the minimum to his age-36 season. They shouldn't do that. Does the name CC Sabathia mean anything to you? Samardzjia was good this year, not great. I wouldn't get too excited about Johnny Cueto, either. He's not helping himself since being traded to Kansas City at the deadline.
So what's our roster likely to look like in 2016? This is pure speculation:
Starting pitchers:
CC Sabathia
Masahiro Tanaka
Nathan Eovaldi
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova
Luis Severino
Bullpen:
Andrew Miller
Dellin Betances
Justin Wilson
Adam Warren
Tony Sipp (what the hell)
James Pazos
Caleb Cotham
Outfielders:
Jacoby Ellsbury
Brett Gardner
Carlos Beltran
Slade Heathcott
Infielders:
Mark Teixeira
Rob Refsnyder
Didi Gregorius
Chase Headley
Dustin Ackley
Catchers
Brian McCann (because I really don't believe Cashman will do anything that bold)
John Ryan Murphy
In other words, much like this year. Only older.
As expected, the Yankees checked out after one game--actually, they checked out after one inning--of the playoffs and winter came early this year. That's not at all a surprise because this was never a great team, but it is a disappointment.
But it's time now to move on and consider what the 2016 Yankees will look like six months from now when we'll have forgotten how we feel today and the Boston Red Sox will be the proud new owners of a shiny David Price.
Make no mistake that the Sox will be better next year. The Blue Jays, minus Price, will still be very good but not as good unless there's another free agent pitcher out there they can conjure up. They might very well be the World Champion Blue Jays at that point and such events tend to change things a bit.
So the competition will be intense, which is as it should be. Will Tampa and Baltimore play a role? Yes, but probably not a really big one--the Orioles are losing half their team to free agency and won't open up the bank to keep them. The Rays can always make young pitchers appear but the atmosphere in that horror show in Tampa is poisonous and besides, they don't have any money. So look at it as a three-team race in 2016.
Assuming the Yankees are contending. That's not a certainty at this point.
Before this season began, all the baseball pundits were saying that the Yankees probably wouldn't be much of a factor unless Mr. Rod, Beltran, McCann and Teixeira all had bounce back years, and that wasn't likely to happen. Except it did, for a while. For the first half of the season, Mr. Rod looked like a superstar again, Tex was playing as if he'd never hurt his... what was it that time? McCann never hit for much average but he was knocking them out of the park and after April, Beltran started to hit well and continued to do so until last night.
He was the only one, but that's the way it goes. Tex got hurt, McCann threw out baserunners and gave up the whole hitting thing and Mr. Rod hit 40 or 40 hit him. He looked old and worn out, as a 40-year-old man who hadn't played baseball regularly in two years might look.
Can we expect all of them to do as well next year as they did for the first half of this year? No. Having a perfect storm happen twice consecutively is unrealistic. And if I were Brian Cashman--which I'm undeniably not--I'd be looking at the following solutions to problems.
First: Try to move Brett Gardner to another team for a starting pitcher. I'd say try to trade Jacoby Ellsbury and his injured everything, but at this point the Seven Santini Brothers couldn't move that contract so we move to the next possibility. Gardner is a very good player but for both of the past two seasons he has been a deficit after August 15 and that is not a promising recipe for success, nor can it be expected to change unless he starts playing only four games a week.
Second: Trust the kids. Let Rob Refsnyder be your starting second baseman next year. Thank goodness the Stephen Drew Era has ended, let Dustin Ackley back up everybody on the infield instead of Brendan Ryan and put Refsnyder at second. He hits better than anyone we've seen there since Cano and he does not appear to be a liability defensively, which was what we'd been led to believe.
Greg Bird must be on the major league roster in April. Yes, Teixeira (on the last year of an onerous contract) will presumably be healthy, but Bird has proven he belongs, he has nothing left to prove in AAA and either way, Tex is gone the end of next season, so trading Bird makes no sense. Bring him up and let him play. He was putting up Teixeira-like numbers anyway and can play at first.
Let Beltran be your left-handed DH. He is no longer a viable right fielder. Too many balls that any average outfielder would have caught fall in front of him as he trots on over to pick them up. The man can hit (and next year will be his last with the Yankees), but Mr. Rod needs the days off and Beltran is clearly a DH who has been forced into a fielding position.
See if anyone wants to trade for McCann or Headley. The Yankees would have to eat some money on either deal because they overpaid, but the McCann thing really never made sense with the wealth of young catchers the Yankees have under team control. John Ryan (Please Don't Call Me JR) Murphy hit well and caught well all year. Gary Sanchez is right behind him and so is Austin Romine. Move McCann if you McCan. Headley for some reason forgot he was a Gold Glove third baseman this year and couldn't throw about half the time. His offense never got much better than okay. Maybe that's the future position for Dustin Ackley.
Get more starting pitching. Here's the projected rotation for 2016: Tanaka (ticking time bomb of an elbow), Pineda (always an injury waiting to happen, with flashes of magnificence in between), Nova (probably better the farther he gets from his Tommy John surgery), Sabathia (out of rehab but with a knee that's never going to get better, brace or no brace) and Eovaldi (yeah, he won 14 games but he got all the runs the Yankees scored this year). Adam Warren, the world's most patient man, will be the sixth starter/long relief guy. Or trade bait.
No, the Yankees aren't getting Price. The Red Sox will offer a ridiculous contract and he'll take it. The Yankees won't mind the money but won't want to give him the years, and they'll be right. Who else is available this offseason? You'll hear names like Zack Greinke and Jeff Samardzjia, but that's only because they're hard to spell. Greinke was amazing this year, but has to opt out of an upcoming three years at $71-million, meaning the Yankees would need to offer a contract taking him at the minimum to his age-36 season. They shouldn't do that. Does the name CC Sabathia mean anything to you? Samardzjia was good this year, not great. I wouldn't get too excited about Johnny Cueto, either. He's not helping himself since being traded to Kansas City at the deadline.
So what's our roster likely to look like in 2016? This is pure speculation:
Starting pitchers:
CC Sabathia
Masahiro Tanaka
Nathan Eovaldi
Michael Pineda
Ivan Nova
Luis Severino
Bullpen:
Andrew Miller
Dellin Betances
Justin Wilson
Adam Warren
Tony Sipp (what the hell)
James Pazos
Caleb Cotham
Outfielders:
Jacoby Ellsbury
Brett Gardner
Carlos Beltran
Slade Heathcott
Infielders:
Mark Teixeira
Rob Refsnyder
Didi Gregorius
Chase Headley
Dustin Ackley
Catchers
Brian McCann (because I really don't believe Cashman will do anything that bold)
John Ryan Murphy
In other words, much like this year. Only older.
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Before the One-Game Play-In
Quite often as I read back on these posts I see that I don't write much when the Yankees are doing well. Maybe it's superstition that I'll ruin the mojo or something (although I'm not really that kind of fan), or maybe it's just that I get more passionate when I see things that I think need changing.
But tonight, with a day to prepare Monday and then the one-game play-in Tuesday night (I already exchanged my theater tickets), I think it's time to say that this has actually been a pretty good season. The team was in first place for a good while, was close for even longer, and secured a playoff spot for the first time since Derek Jeter broke his ankle playing Detroit. Those were all good things.
Also a refreshing change of pace was the confidence shown in some emerging Yankee farmhands. Yes, Toronto got Tulo and David Price at the trade deadline and the Yankees ended up with Dustin Ackley. Know what? We also got Luis Severino, who seems to be the real deal and Greg Bird, who did one heck of a Mark Teixeira impression--but with a higher batting average and not as much defensive flash--in something much longer than a cameo. I would have no problem with Greg Bird as my starting first baseman in the playoffs and beyond.
And guess what? That Ackley guy nobody ever heard of turned out to be pretty good and so did Rob Refsnyder, who's my second baseman next year when Cashman calls and asks. Which he won't, but what the hell.
Didi Gregorius, who looked a lot like Rich McKinney the first six weeks or so of the season, became an asset, making all the routine plays and some of the really tough ones and hitting better than respectably. He's not Derek Jeter. Neither is anyone else except Derek Jeter. That's okay. Cashman did well with that one.
Did some of the team age in August and September? Unquestionably. Mr. Rod remembered he was 40 years old right around the time he became 40 years old and maybe the undercover substances just weren't kicking in like they used to. Brian McCann threw lots of runners out and forgot how to hit for power or average in the last month of the season. As a right fielder, Carlos Beltran makes a hell of a DH.
CC Sabathia came back from that knee thing some people thought would end not just his season but his career and actually pitched quite well, but he's never going to dominate and he'll never see the seventh inning again. Dellin Betances suddenly turned all human on us the last few weeks after pitching something like 3000 innings this year. Chasen Shreve just vanished. There's someone wearing his uniform number now who appears to work for the other side.
It's not time yet to consider next year. It's not even time to consider next week. Right now, there is just Tuesday. But before we get to that, let's revel a little. A team that was picked by more than one to finish last secured a playoff spot. We had some great moments and some really fun personalities for a while.
We also had the past two weeks of truly awful baseball and that's not inspiring going into the do-or-die part of the season, but that's not the point just now.
It's been an entertaining, and if you measure some ways, successful six months. After the past two years that had to recommend themselves only with the farewell tours of two irreplaceable players, that's not nothing by a long shot.
My prediction for Tuesday? The Astros will win. Keuchel and his beard are more intimidating than Tanaka and his scary hamstring. The Yankees aren't hitting Orioles starters with ERAs over 5. Tanaka's been having problems in the first and second innings. This one will be over early. It gets late early out there.
Look, I wasn't going to stay positive the whole time. You can't expect a complete change of personality.
But tonight, with a day to prepare Monday and then the one-game play-in Tuesday night (I already exchanged my theater tickets), I think it's time to say that this has actually been a pretty good season. The team was in first place for a good while, was close for even longer, and secured a playoff spot for the first time since Derek Jeter broke his ankle playing Detroit. Those were all good things.
Also a refreshing change of pace was the confidence shown in some emerging Yankee farmhands. Yes, Toronto got Tulo and David Price at the trade deadline and the Yankees ended up with Dustin Ackley. Know what? We also got Luis Severino, who seems to be the real deal and Greg Bird, who did one heck of a Mark Teixeira impression--but with a higher batting average and not as much defensive flash--in something much longer than a cameo. I would have no problem with Greg Bird as my starting first baseman in the playoffs and beyond.
And guess what? That Ackley guy nobody ever heard of turned out to be pretty good and so did Rob Refsnyder, who's my second baseman next year when Cashman calls and asks. Which he won't, but what the hell.
Didi Gregorius, who looked a lot like Rich McKinney the first six weeks or so of the season, became an asset, making all the routine plays and some of the really tough ones and hitting better than respectably. He's not Derek Jeter. Neither is anyone else except Derek Jeter. That's okay. Cashman did well with that one.
Did some of the team age in August and September? Unquestionably. Mr. Rod remembered he was 40 years old right around the time he became 40 years old and maybe the undercover substances just weren't kicking in like they used to. Brian McCann threw lots of runners out and forgot how to hit for power or average in the last month of the season. As a right fielder, Carlos Beltran makes a hell of a DH.
CC Sabathia came back from that knee thing some people thought would end not just his season but his career and actually pitched quite well, but he's never going to dominate and he'll never see the seventh inning again. Dellin Betances suddenly turned all human on us the last few weeks after pitching something like 3000 innings this year. Chasen Shreve just vanished. There's someone wearing his uniform number now who appears to work for the other side.
It's not time yet to consider next year. It's not even time to consider next week. Right now, there is just Tuesday. But before we get to that, let's revel a little. A team that was picked by more than one to finish last secured a playoff spot. We had some great moments and some really fun personalities for a while.
We also had the past two weeks of truly awful baseball and that's not inspiring going into the do-or-die part of the season, but that's not the point just now.
It's been an entertaining, and if you measure some ways, successful six months. After the past two years that had to recommend themselves only with the farewell tours of two irreplaceable players, that's not nothing by a long shot.
My prediction for Tuesday? The Astros will win. Keuchel and his beard are more intimidating than Tanaka and his scary hamstring. The Yankees aren't hitting Orioles starters with ERAs over 5. Tanaka's been having problems in the first and second innings. This one will be over early. It gets late early out there.
Look, I wasn't going to stay positive the whole time. You can't expect a complete change of personality.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
I Should Have Said It Earlier
I was going to, I swear. I had every intention of posting even when the Yankees were doing well, a game or two ahead of the upcoming Toronto Blue Jays (four games coming off this hideous series with a bad Orioles team?). But I didn't, and now it looks like I'm just piling on. But you have to believe when I tell you I was going to say it sooner. Much sooner.
I don't trust this team. Not a bit. I don't believe in them. They haven't given me a reason to have any confidence. If they get swept by Toronto for the next four days--which with Price pitching tomorrow and then a rotation of Nova, Pineda and Tanaka on regular rest is certainly possible--I won't be surprised. If they sweep the Blue Jays, I will be very surprised. And that's what it would take to have any confidence going into the last 20 games of the year.
There isn't one aspect of this year's Yankees that inspires confidence. The offense is good except when it's terrible, and the other team's pitcher doesn't really seem to play that large a role. Starters with ERAs around 6 come in and they're Cy Freakin' Young. Other times the ace storms into Yankee Stadium: The Theme Park and gets clobbered. There's no predicting baseball, Suzyn.
The Yankee's starting five (or nine, whatever it is now) have not exactly been reminding us of the 1990s Braves, either. When they're not hurt--which isn't often--they're always just on the cusp of "figuring it out." Then they don't. Or they get hurt.
Our vaunted bullpen? Great the first half of the season, shakier with the huge amount of work the trusty starters have made them do. Andrew Miller only has one blown save, but he has a couple of non-save situations that didn't work out so well and he's making even the successful ones interesting. And worse, apparently that philosophy has rubbed off on the almost-automatic Dellin Betances, who now likes to surrender the occasional home run and last time out loaded the bases on walks while in the process of striking out the side.
Not to mention that Adam Warren is going to have to leave the pen to start again because Nathan Eovaldi saw what fun it was to be on the disabled list after Nova, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia went, so he figured he'd try it out too. That leaves the bullpen thinner (don't talk to me about Chris Capuano ever again) and I'm not crazy about the prospect.
Fielding? Sir Didi has finally become the shortstop they kept telling us he was. Unfortunately, Chase Headley is becoming the third baseman Rich McKinney was (look it up) and Stephen Drew, now that he has gloriously gotten over .200 in his batting average, has apparently become cocky to the point that he feels he no longer has to play the outstanding defense that was the reason the Yankees were willing to put up with him batting under .200 to begin with.
In the outfield, we'll see if Brett Gardner, who hasn't hit a lick in weeks, can come back for the Toronto series. Ellsbury looks a little dazed--maybe it's still the hip thing--and even Chris Young has forgotten he hits lefties like Babe Freakin' Ruth. Carlos Beltran hits, but he is a liability in the field. You could put Mr. Rod out in right field and get pretty much the same defense.
Greg Bird has a tendency to hit nice home runs and then strike out a lot. He also plays a good first base with the exception of ranging too far into Drew's territory and then not getting back to the bag to take a throw. He's good, but he's not Mark Teixeira, but then nobody is right now.
Mr. Rod also has starting hitting home runs again but he doesn't hit anything else. He's the Dave Kingman of 2015 these days, an all-or-nothing proposition. And the fact that he, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran are hitting in a row and not one of them can even trot, let alone run, is a problem.
So what should we expect over the last 24 games of the year? It beats the hell out of me. We might see a tired, old team limp into the playoffs and be eliminated in the one-game play-in. We might see them suddenly rejuvenate themselves and blow past the Blue Jays to win the division--and then lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Or we might, heaven forbid, see them get swept by Toronto starting tomorrow and eventually sink down below the 6.5-game lead they currently hold on the second wild card only to slink home after the regular season with very little retooling in the works for 2016. Any of those scenarios is possible.
I just don't believe in this team.
I don't trust this team. Not a bit. I don't believe in them. They haven't given me a reason to have any confidence. If they get swept by Toronto for the next four days--which with Price pitching tomorrow and then a rotation of Nova, Pineda and Tanaka on regular rest is certainly possible--I won't be surprised. If they sweep the Blue Jays, I will be very surprised. And that's what it would take to have any confidence going into the last 20 games of the year.
There isn't one aspect of this year's Yankees that inspires confidence. The offense is good except when it's terrible, and the other team's pitcher doesn't really seem to play that large a role. Starters with ERAs around 6 come in and they're Cy Freakin' Young. Other times the ace storms into Yankee Stadium: The Theme Park and gets clobbered. There's no predicting baseball, Suzyn.
The Yankee's starting five (or nine, whatever it is now) have not exactly been reminding us of the 1990s Braves, either. When they're not hurt--which isn't often--they're always just on the cusp of "figuring it out." Then they don't. Or they get hurt.
Our vaunted bullpen? Great the first half of the season, shakier with the huge amount of work the trusty starters have made them do. Andrew Miller only has one blown save, but he has a couple of non-save situations that didn't work out so well and he's making even the successful ones interesting. And worse, apparently that philosophy has rubbed off on the almost-automatic Dellin Betances, who now likes to surrender the occasional home run and last time out loaded the bases on walks while in the process of striking out the side.
Not to mention that Adam Warren is going to have to leave the pen to start again because Nathan Eovaldi saw what fun it was to be on the disabled list after Nova, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia went, so he figured he'd try it out too. That leaves the bullpen thinner (don't talk to me about Chris Capuano ever again) and I'm not crazy about the prospect.
Fielding? Sir Didi has finally become the shortstop they kept telling us he was. Unfortunately, Chase Headley is becoming the third baseman Rich McKinney was (look it up) and Stephen Drew, now that he has gloriously gotten over .200 in his batting average, has apparently become cocky to the point that he feels he no longer has to play the outstanding defense that was the reason the Yankees were willing to put up with him batting under .200 to begin with.
In the outfield, we'll see if Brett Gardner, who hasn't hit a lick in weeks, can come back for the Toronto series. Ellsbury looks a little dazed--maybe it's still the hip thing--and even Chris Young has forgotten he hits lefties like Babe Freakin' Ruth. Carlos Beltran hits, but he is a liability in the field. You could put Mr. Rod out in right field and get pretty much the same defense.
Greg Bird has a tendency to hit nice home runs and then strike out a lot. He also plays a good first base with the exception of ranging too far into Drew's territory and then not getting back to the bag to take a throw. He's good, but he's not Mark Teixeira, but then nobody is right now.
Mr. Rod also has starting hitting home runs again but he doesn't hit anything else. He's the Dave Kingman of 2015 these days, an all-or-nothing proposition. And the fact that he, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran are hitting in a row and not one of them can even trot, let alone run, is a problem.
So what should we expect over the last 24 games of the year? It beats the hell out of me. We might see a tired, old team limp into the playoffs and be eliminated in the one-game play-in. We might see them suddenly rejuvenate themselves and blow past the Blue Jays to win the division--and then lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Or we might, heaven forbid, see them get swept by Toronto starting tomorrow and eventually sink down below the 6.5-game lead they currently hold on the second wild card only to slink home after the regular season with very little retooling in the works for 2016. Any of those scenarios is possible.
I just don't believe in this team.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Trade Deadline
It's been a good month for the Yankees, but don't be fooled--this is still a flawed, schizophrenic team that could easily have an awful August (there are 10 games left against Tulo and his revitalized Jays, offset perhaps by 10 games against the truly terrible Red Sox) and be right back in a suffocatingly tight race with September ahead.
So here we are on the very cusp of the 2015 non-waiver trading deadline and... there's not much likely to happen, unless something does.
For all the fuss about David Price, I think it's really not realistic to be fitting him for pinstripes just yet. Over the winter, when it's just money, maybe. But now, when there are other teams who ARE willing to jettison their top prospects for two months of Price (who, let's be real, is a very good pitcher but not a great one), expect someone else to pay the, you should pardon the expression, price.
Maybe we should stop hearing about Luis Severino and why he can't be dealt and get to see him for ourselves. If he's that good, we won't miss David Price so much.
It's nice that Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew have had a couple of important hits lately. But Ben Zobrist is off the table, so when do we get Rob Refsnyder back?
The most likely scenario is that the Yankees do nothing big at the deadline. It's possible someone of a Brendan McCarthy (2014) level will be available for prospects we don't really care about, and that might happen. Perhaps Aaron Small II is out there someplace, a guy who'll have a great two months and then move on. Brian Cashman is very good at that sort of thing.
It's entirely possible there will be no move at all. It doesn't make sense to trade just so you can say you did it. And it doesn't make sense to decimate the farm system (again!) to get two months of someone pretty good who might get you to the playoffs but not much farther.
My guess: There will be a minor deal or two. No huge prospects will be moved. Ivan Nova will remain a Yankee. CC Sabathia, under no circumstances, is leaving the rotation for the bullpen. The Yankees you have now are essentially the Yankees you'll have for the rest of the season.
For better. Or worse.
So here we are on the very cusp of the 2015 non-waiver trading deadline and... there's not much likely to happen, unless something does.
For all the fuss about David Price, I think it's really not realistic to be fitting him for pinstripes just yet. Over the winter, when it's just money, maybe. But now, when there are other teams who ARE willing to jettison their top prospects for two months of Price (who, let's be real, is a very good pitcher but not a great one), expect someone else to pay the, you should pardon the expression, price.
Maybe we should stop hearing about Luis Severino and why he can't be dealt and get to see him for ourselves. If he's that good, we won't miss David Price so much.
It's nice that Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew have had a couple of important hits lately. But Ben Zobrist is off the table, so when do we get Rob Refsnyder back?
The most likely scenario is that the Yankees do nothing big at the deadline. It's possible someone of a Brendan McCarthy (2014) level will be available for prospects we don't really care about, and that might happen. Perhaps Aaron Small II is out there someplace, a guy who'll have a great two months and then move on. Brian Cashman is very good at that sort of thing.
It's entirely possible there will be no move at all. It doesn't make sense to trade just so you can say you did it. And it doesn't make sense to decimate the farm system (again!) to get two months of someone pretty good who might get you to the playoffs but not much farther.
My guess: There will be a minor deal or two. No huge prospects will be moved. Ivan Nova will remain a Yankee. CC Sabathia, under no circumstances, is leaving the rotation for the bullpen. The Yankees you have now are essentially the Yankees you'll have for the rest of the season.
For better. Or worse.
Sunday, June 14, 2015
The Yankees as Norman Bates
The 2015 New York Yankees (and they need to stop being introduced as "YOUR 2015 New York Yankees" unless Hal, Hank and the crew are willing to share the profits) are the most bipolar team I can remember seeing. When they're up, they can beat anybody. Then they lose one game and you can expect two weeks of incredible ineptitude. Someone please pass the lithium.
"Streaky" is one thing. As a hitter, Brett Gardner is "streaky." He does really well for a while, then goes into a slump, but he's not a total loss at the plate because he will take a walk and that can (if he gets over his fear of flying) become a double. That's pretty good. And he's almost always an asset in the field.
But this team is not just streaky. This team has multiple personalities, and the good one has never met the bad one. They wouldn't recognize each other if they passed in the street. It's like there's a dungeon below Yankee Stadium: The Theme Park and the doppelgangers are kept down there to be let out when the next change of fortunes is due. The problem is, it's impossible to tell which team is the real Yankees, and which one is the doppelgangers.
The Yankees went on a seven-game winning streak and nobody could beat them. Bring on the Angels, bring on the Mariners (including King Felix but not Robinson Cano because nobody looking like him showed up for that series), start to bring on the Nationals. No problem.
Then one game goes bad against the Nats, Andrew Miller goes on the 15-day DL, the vaunted bullpen is suddenly a liability, and the bad team comes out of the dungeon.
Except that's not all there is to it. Michael Pineda, arguably the best starter on the team this year, gets extra rest and discovers he knows how to give up tons of runs. The outfield can't decide on who should catch a popup, so they agree to let it fall. Mr. Rod, who gave up hitting home runs after he passed Willie Mays and wasn't given six million dollars the next day, is clamming up at the very whiff (pardon the expression) of 3,000 hits. Yes, it happened to Derek Jeter, too. No, I don't see the two the same way. Jeter was concerned about doing it in front of the hometown fans. Mr. Rod appears worried that he'll do it on a day the Yankees are not playing on national TV. Put the Fox cameras on and he gets two hits a night. On YES? A couple of strikeouts, a nice grounder to short. See you tomorrow.
This is in many ways a disturbing team. Masahiro Tanaka's elbow should be encased in bubble wrap and allowed out only on days he pitches. Here's a weird concept: The Yankees have no shortstop. How is that possible? Did they not know Jeter was going to turn 40? He'd been around for 20 years. Did it never occur to anyone they might want to draft a kid who could play there?
Second base? Yes, Stephen Drew has hit some home runs. In fact, he's hit 9 home runs, which many people will point out are 7 more home runs than Cano, who has decided he likes the money and the facial hair in Seattle and not much else. But Drew is also hitting .172, which means he's been useful in 9 plate appearances this year. Bulletin: That's not enough.
Seven Yankees who are at least semi-regulars have on-base percentages under .300. Sir Didi has a slugging percentage of .286. Which would be fine if he were the defensive wizard we were promised. Not so much. Except when he makes a great play.
And that's the problem. Look at the Yankees when they're winning and they seem like the 1998 Yankees, who can beat anybody just by deciding they will. Look at them when they're losing and they're the 1966 version, which finished in 10th place. Out of 10. There is no in-between.
David Carpenter is gone. That's good. Esmil Rogers is gone. That's probably good, too. But so is Miller, and if you believe it's going to be two weeks before he's back, you're adorable. That means at this point the reliable members of the Yankee bullpen are Dellin Betances. If your starting pitcher goes eight innings, that's great. When's the last time a Yankee starter did that?
Every team in the world is looking at Ben Zobrist of the A's for a trade. It stands to reason the Yankees might like a guy who can actually play second base and hit at the same time, not to mention could fill in at short when Sir Didi's amazing glove needs to cool off from another day of making astounding stops and then throwing just a little too late to get the runner. And play some outfield because Ellsbury might be back after the All-Star break and this year's Chris Young is the Mets Chris Young, not the Yankee Chris Young. It gets confusing.
And they're not getting Zobrist anyway, because other teams will offer better prospects in return. Do I want to give up Rob Refsnyder of 2017 for Ben Zobrist now? Probably not.
The bullpen? Girardi will figure that out. He always does; it's his best thing. The starting pitching? Ivan Nova started in the minors again last night and did well; that means he'll be on his way soon. Tanaka is looking good, even if you hold your breath each and every time he lets that ball go. Pineda on regular rest might revert back to the dominant one we saw earlier this year. Adam Warren? Nova's coming back, Adam. You've done well but you don't pitch deep into games and every other starter has a massive contract except Eovaldi. Girardi always figures out the bullpen. Do the math. When this stretch of 20 games in 20 days is over, there's a good chance you'll be hanging with Dellin until you're needed.
That is, assuming the good Yankees show up again and need a decent reliever. Otherwise, we'll know who the doppelgängers were all the time.
"Streaky" is one thing. As a hitter, Brett Gardner is "streaky." He does really well for a while, then goes into a slump, but he's not a total loss at the plate because he will take a walk and that can (if he gets over his fear of flying) become a double. That's pretty good. And he's almost always an asset in the field.
But this team is not just streaky. This team has multiple personalities, and the good one has never met the bad one. They wouldn't recognize each other if they passed in the street. It's like there's a dungeon below Yankee Stadium: The Theme Park and the doppelgangers are kept down there to be let out when the next change of fortunes is due. The problem is, it's impossible to tell which team is the real Yankees, and which one is the doppelgangers.
The Yankees went on a seven-game winning streak and nobody could beat them. Bring on the Angels, bring on the Mariners (including King Felix but not Robinson Cano because nobody looking like him showed up for that series), start to bring on the Nationals. No problem.
Then one game goes bad against the Nats, Andrew Miller goes on the 15-day DL, the vaunted bullpen is suddenly a liability, and the bad team comes out of the dungeon.
Except that's not all there is to it. Michael Pineda, arguably the best starter on the team this year, gets extra rest and discovers he knows how to give up tons of runs. The outfield can't decide on who should catch a popup, so they agree to let it fall. Mr. Rod, who gave up hitting home runs after he passed Willie Mays and wasn't given six million dollars the next day, is clamming up at the very whiff (pardon the expression) of 3,000 hits. Yes, it happened to Derek Jeter, too. No, I don't see the two the same way. Jeter was concerned about doing it in front of the hometown fans. Mr. Rod appears worried that he'll do it on a day the Yankees are not playing on national TV. Put the Fox cameras on and he gets two hits a night. On YES? A couple of strikeouts, a nice grounder to short. See you tomorrow.
This is in many ways a disturbing team. Masahiro Tanaka's elbow should be encased in bubble wrap and allowed out only on days he pitches. Here's a weird concept: The Yankees have no shortstop. How is that possible? Did they not know Jeter was going to turn 40? He'd been around for 20 years. Did it never occur to anyone they might want to draft a kid who could play there?
Second base? Yes, Stephen Drew has hit some home runs. In fact, he's hit 9 home runs, which many people will point out are 7 more home runs than Cano, who has decided he likes the money and the facial hair in Seattle and not much else. But Drew is also hitting .172, which means he's been useful in 9 plate appearances this year. Bulletin: That's not enough.
Seven Yankees who are at least semi-regulars have on-base percentages under .300. Sir Didi has a slugging percentage of .286. Which would be fine if he were the defensive wizard we were promised. Not so much. Except when he makes a great play.
And that's the problem. Look at the Yankees when they're winning and they seem like the 1998 Yankees, who can beat anybody just by deciding they will. Look at them when they're losing and they're the 1966 version, which finished in 10th place. Out of 10. There is no in-between.
David Carpenter is gone. That's good. Esmil Rogers is gone. That's probably good, too. But so is Miller, and if you believe it's going to be two weeks before he's back, you're adorable. That means at this point the reliable members of the Yankee bullpen are Dellin Betances. If your starting pitcher goes eight innings, that's great. When's the last time a Yankee starter did that?
Every team in the world is looking at Ben Zobrist of the A's for a trade. It stands to reason the Yankees might like a guy who can actually play second base and hit at the same time, not to mention could fill in at short when Sir Didi's amazing glove needs to cool off from another day of making astounding stops and then throwing just a little too late to get the runner. And play some outfield because Ellsbury might be back after the All-Star break and this year's Chris Young is the Mets Chris Young, not the Yankee Chris Young. It gets confusing.
And they're not getting Zobrist anyway, because other teams will offer better prospects in return. Do I want to give up Rob Refsnyder of 2017 for Ben Zobrist now? Probably not.
The bullpen? Girardi will figure that out. He always does; it's his best thing. The starting pitching? Ivan Nova started in the minors again last night and did well; that means he'll be on his way soon. Tanaka is looking good, even if you hold your breath each and every time he lets that ball go. Pineda on regular rest might revert back to the dominant one we saw earlier this year. Adam Warren? Nova's coming back, Adam. You've done well but you don't pitch deep into games and every other starter has a massive contract except Eovaldi. Girardi always figures out the bullpen. Do the math. When this stretch of 20 games in 20 days is over, there's a good chance you'll be hanging with Dellin until you're needed.
That is, assuming the good Yankees show up again and need a decent reliever. Otherwise, we'll know who the doppelgängers were all the time.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Team Prescription
Okay, so some things are working out, and some things aren't.
The good news: The Yankees are in first place. That's not nothing. It's pretty much June and there they are with a slim lead in the AL East. This is looking very much like a division that can be won by a team that isn't great, which is really good news for the 2015 Yankees.
Michael Pineda and Adam Warren are pitching really well most of the time. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are ridiculous. Mark Teixeira is hitting like he's supposed to. Mr. Rod has found the Fountain of Something and is doing unexpectedly well. Even Carlos Beltran just had a 15-game hitting streak. Brian McCann, although he still allows a passed ball at least once a game, is hitting home runs again. All good.
The bad news: Jacoby Ellsbury is already hurt. So is Masahiro Tanaka, although he's allegedly coming back next week. Didi Gregorius, whom everyone told us is not Derek Jeter, is proving that in spades. I haven't seen him much before this year, but from what I'm hearing, he's not even Didi Gregorius now.
CC Sabathia has not returned to form, no matter what David Cone and Michael Kay want you to believe. Nathan Eovaldi is something, but we don't know what. (What's today?) We're still sending Chris Capuano out every fifth day. That's not good.
So given all that's going on, what should be happening with these Yankees, preferably sooner rather than later?
1. Stephen Drew should be on his way to the airport: It was an understandable experiment, but it hasn't worked. You can't tell me that Rob Refsnyder's defense is so bad it won't make up for the fact that he'll hit at least 100 points higher than Drew, play some kind of second base, and shore up at least some of the last third of the lineup. Nice knowing you, Stephen. Maybe we can get a batting practice machine for you.
2. Has anybody checked on Ivan Nova?: It's reported that he threw 62 pitches a couple of days ago. Is a rehab assignment far behind? Anything's better than Capuano, and even if Tanaka returns and is healthy, there's no guarantee he's going to stay that way. Nova has been really good when he's healthy. If he's ready--and that's a big "if"--he can help.
3. Can Jose Pirela play shortstop?: Not full-time, but he could perhaps platoon with Sir Didi (or has his knighthood been revoked?). As a right-handed batter, he's got to be better, and since Didi's defense has not been the miracle we were led to expect, it's worth the try.
4. Maybe two plane tickets are cheaper than one.: David Carpenter isn't working out. Betances and Miller are doing very well indeed, and Esmil Rogers and others in the bullpen are holding their own, but Carpenter is the one pitcher causing groans when Girardi signals for him. Again, you take your chances and you see what happens, but we've seen what happens. Enough.
5. Let Slade Heathcott play some centerfield: If he's healthy. Word was yesterday there was a strain somewhere or another, and with this player, that could mean he's back tonight or we never see him again. But he could be a long-term answer in right field maybe, if the Yankees want a complete outfield without much power. It's time to let some of the younger guys show us what they can do.
6. Let John Ryan Murphy catch a little more.: The key words there are "a little." McCann is hitting pretty well, but the defensive catcher we were promised a year and a half ago appears to have stayed in Atlanta. How many times have we heard, "and it gets by McCann" this year? Maybe he just needs a little more rest. When there's a tough righty on the mound, let Mr. Rod sit down and DH McCann.
7. Find a dependable backup infielder.: How hard can that be? We're not talking about Tulowitzki here. Just someone who doesn't make a fan moan in anticipation of his entering the game and who won't get hurt every 20 minutes. Is that so much to ask?
8. Take Sabathia out after the sixth.: He always looks good early in the game. The "one bad inning" is usually the seventh. I don't care if the man has a no-hitter going: If the Yankees have a lead of anything less than five runs, Sabathia needs to be a five- or six-inning pitcher, all the time.
*Stuff for the trade deadline:
1. Another starting pitcher. Doesn't have to be Cole Hamels. In fact, it probably shouldn't be Cole Hamels. An innings eater. A strike thrower. Someone who'll keep you in the game without necessarily striking out 15. Don't give away the farm (team); just a Brandon McCarthy type, the sort of thing Cashman is especially good at. Expect that in late July.
2. A replacement for Chris Young. It's looking like the boost that Young got from leaving Queens has worn off. Time for a stronger, hopefully more powerful, fourth outfielder.
3. A second baseman. If the A's keep doing this badly, Ben Zobrist might become available. If the Yankees are positive Refsnyder can't handle the position yet, somebody has to. It can't be Stephen Drew if this team is going to make the playoffs.
The good news: The Yankees are in first place. That's not nothing. It's pretty much June and there they are with a slim lead in the AL East. This is looking very much like a division that can be won by a team that isn't great, which is really good news for the 2015 Yankees.
Michael Pineda and Adam Warren are pitching really well most of the time. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are ridiculous. Mark Teixeira is hitting like he's supposed to. Mr. Rod has found the Fountain of Something and is doing unexpectedly well. Even Carlos Beltran just had a 15-game hitting streak. Brian McCann, although he still allows a passed ball at least once a game, is hitting home runs again. All good.
The bad news: Jacoby Ellsbury is already hurt. So is Masahiro Tanaka, although he's allegedly coming back next week. Didi Gregorius, whom everyone told us is not Derek Jeter, is proving that in spades. I haven't seen him much before this year, but from what I'm hearing, he's not even Didi Gregorius now.
CC Sabathia has not returned to form, no matter what David Cone and Michael Kay want you to believe. Nathan Eovaldi is something, but we don't know what. (What's today?) We're still sending Chris Capuano out every fifth day. That's not good.
So given all that's going on, what should be happening with these Yankees, preferably sooner rather than later?
1. Stephen Drew should be on his way to the airport: It was an understandable experiment, but it hasn't worked. You can't tell me that Rob Refsnyder's defense is so bad it won't make up for the fact that he'll hit at least 100 points higher than Drew, play some kind of second base, and shore up at least some of the last third of the lineup. Nice knowing you, Stephen. Maybe we can get a batting practice machine for you.
2. Has anybody checked on Ivan Nova?: It's reported that he threw 62 pitches a couple of days ago. Is a rehab assignment far behind? Anything's better than Capuano, and even if Tanaka returns and is healthy, there's no guarantee he's going to stay that way. Nova has been really good when he's healthy. If he's ready--and that's a big "if"--he can help.
3. Can Jose Pirela play shortstop?: Not full-time, but he could perhaps platoon with Sir Didi (or has his knighthood been revoked?). As a right-handed batter, he's got to be better, and since Didi's defense has not been the miracle we were led to expect, it's worth the try.
4. Maybe two plane tickets are cheaper than one.: David Carpenter isn't working out. Betances and Miller are doing very well indeed, and Esmil Rogers and others in the bullpen are holding their own, but Carpenter is the one pitcher causing groans when Girardi signals for him. Again, you take your chances and you see what happens, but we've seen what happens. Enough.
5. Let Slade Heathcott play some centerfield: If he's healthy. Word was yesterday there was a strain somewhere or another, and with this player, that could mean he's back tonight or we never see him again. But he could be a long-term answer in right field maybe, if the Yankees want a complete outfield without much power. It's time to let some of the younger guys show us what they can do.
6. Let John Ryan Murphy catch a little more.: The key words there are "a little." McCann is hitting pretty well, but the defensive catcher we were promised a year and a half ago appears to have stayed in Atlanta. How many times have we heard, "and it gets by McCann" this year? Maybe he just needs a little more rest. When there's a tough righty on the mound, let Mr. Rod sit down and DH McCann.
7. Find a dependable backup infielder.: How hard can that be? We're not talking about Tulowitzki here. Just someone who doesn't make a fan moan in anticipation of his entering the game and who won't get hurt every 20 minutes. Is that so much to ask?
8. Take Sabathia out after the sixth.: He always looks good early in the game. The "one bad inning" is usually the seventh. I don't care if the man has a no-hitter going: If the Yankees have a lead of anything less than five runs, Sabathia needs to be a five- or six-inning pitcher, all the time.
*Stuff for the trade deadline:
1. Another starting pitcher. Doesn't have to be Cole Hamels. In fact, it probably shouldn't be Cole Hamels. An innings eater. A strike thrower. Someone who'll keep you in the game without necessarily striking out 15. Don't give away the farm (team); just a Brandon McCarthy type, the sort of thing Cashman is especially good at. Expect that in late July.
2. A replacement for Chris Young. It's looking like the boost that Young got from leaving Queens has worn off. Time for a stronger, hopefully more powerful, fourth outfielder.
3. A second baseman. If the A's keep doing this badly, Ben Zobrist might become available. If the Yankees are positive Refsnyder can't handle the position yet, somebody has to. It can't be Stephen Drew if this team is going to make the playoffs.
Friday, April 17, 2015
Only 153 Games Left
So this is the 2015 Yankees. Pitching that can at best be considered "inconsistent." Hitting that shows up some nights and not so much others. And that vaunted defense, especially on the infield? The most errors in Major League Baseball through nine games.
It's gonna be a long year, Yankee fans.
It's not that we were sold a bill of goods, though. We knew what was coming; you could see it a mile away. CC Sabathia, a tired version of his former self, keeps having what the YES commentators want to tell you is a return to form with his pitches, and gives up enough runs to lose. Masahiro Tanaka, the new ace and first-half phenom last year, is pitching like a guy who's afraid to injure his elbow even when he says he's not. Michael Pineda? I'm not sure what's going on with Michael Pineda. He should be better than this.
Nathan Eovaldi has some promise, but as advertised, he gives up a lot of hits. That's not a great formula. When the most consistent starter in the rotation is Adam Warren, that's telling you something.
The bullpen? The Yankees can tell you up and down that they have confidence in the suddenly erratic Dellin Betances, but look who's closing games whenever there's a game to close. (Hint: Not Betances.) If he doesn't get himself straightened out, the loss of David Robertson--much like the loss of Shane Greene right now--could be seen as a huge error in judgment.
And then we get the starting lineup. Already Brett Gardner is out with one of those injuries that's not supposed to be a big deal and ends up taking two months to heal. Jacoby Ellsbury is trying to be both himself and Gardner, and that's a problem. Mr. Rod is the only one hitting well, which leads us to wonder what amazing cocktail he's discovered to avoid the drug tests this time.
Remember how Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira had to all rebound at the same time? Well, Teixeira's hitting pretty well...
And then there's out vaunted infield, the area of the game that, if the pundits were correct, was going to be the most fun to watch. Defensive wizardry would be the norm. In the field, Didi Gregorius was going to make us forget Derek Jeter, who as you'll recall never caught a ground ball in his life.
How's that working out? It's getting to the point that a Yankee fan holds his breath when a routine ground ball goes toward shortstop. It's hard to tell whether it's the pressure of "replacing a legend" or just the larger, nastier crowds that's getting to Gregorius, but something is, and he needs to cure that in a hurry because he's never going to hit well enough to justify the lapses in defense.
As for second base--do the Yankees have a second baseman? I know they didn't call up Rob Refsnyder because his defense is supposed to be poor, but how much worse could it be, and everyone agrees he can hit.
This team isn't going to the World Series, folks. It'll be amazing if it gets within sniffing distance of the playoffs. So it's time to use a word that's never, EVER, heard in the Bronx.
Rebuilding.
Bring up the kids and let them play. Eat some of the insane salaries and trade a few veterans away for good prospects. Draft like you've never drafted before. It's not going to get that much worse, I assure you. Remember that in 1995, nobody had ever heard of Jeter, Pettitte, Posada and Rivera and had only heard the name Bernie Williams once or twice. In 1996 everybody knew who they were.
It's time.
It's gonna be a long year, Yankee fans.
It's not that we were sold a bill of goods, though. We knew what was coming; you could see it a mile away. CC Sabathia, a tired version of his former self, keeps having what the YES commentators want to tell you is a return to form with his pitches, and gives up enough runs to lose. Masahiro Tanaka, the new ace and first-half phenom last year, is pitching like a guy who's afraid to injure his elbow even when he says he's not. Michael Pineda? I'm not sure what's going on with Michael Pineda. He should be better than this.
Nathan Eovaldi has some promise, but as advertised, he gives up a lot of hits. That's not a great formula. When the most consistent starter in the rotation is Adam Warren, that's telling you something.
The bullpen? The Yankees can tell you up and down that they have confidence in the suddenly erratic Dellin Betances, but look who's closing games whenever there's a game to close. (Hint: Not Betances.) If he doesn't get himself straightened out, the loss of David Robertson--much like the loss of Shane Greene right now--could be seen as a huge error in judgment.
And then we get the starting lineup. Already Brett Gardner is out with one of those injuries that's not supposed to be a big deal and ends up taking two months to heal. Jacoby Ellsbury is trying to be both himself and Gardner, and that's a problem. Mr. Rod is the only one hitting well, which leads us to wonder what amazing cocktail he's discovered to avoid the drug tests this time.
Remember how Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira had to all rebound at the same time? Well, Teixeira's hitting pretty well...
And then there's out vaunted infield, the area of the game that, if the pundits were correct, was going to be the most fun to watch. Defensive wizardry would be the norm. In the field, Didi Gregorius was going to make us forget Derek Jeter, who as you'll recall never caught a ground ball in his life.
How's that working out? It's getting to the point that a Yankee fan holds his breath when a routine ground ball goes toward shortstop. It's hard to tell whether it's the pressure of "replacing a legend" or just the larger, nastier crowds that's getting to Gregorius, but something is, and he needs to cure that in a hurry because he's never going to hit well enough to justify the lapses in defense.
As for second base--do the Yankees have a second baseman? I know they didn't call up Rob Refsnyder because his defense is supposed to be poor, but how much worse could it be, and everyone agrees he can hit.
This team isn't going to the World Series, folks. It'll be amazing if it gets within sniffing distance of the playoffs. So it's time to use a word that's never, EVER, heard in the Bronx.
Rebuilding.
Bring up the kids and let them play. Eat some of the insane salaries and trade a few veterans away for good prospects. Draft like you've never drafted before. It's not going to get that much worse, I assure you. Remember that in 1995, nobody had ever heard of Jeter, Pettitte, Posada and Rivera and had only heard the name Bernie Williams once or twice. In 1996 everybody knew who they were.
It's time.
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