... This would be a potential Opening Day lineup for the 2016 Yankees:
8 Jacoby Ellsbury
7 Brett Gardner
9 Carlos Beltran
3 Mark Teixeira
DH Mr. Rod
2 Brian McCann
4 Starlin Castro
5 Chase Headley
6 Didi Gregorius
That's not bad. It isn't Murderers Row, but it's not bad.
Castro, the newest acquisition, is an interesting Yankee. While I would have been content to see what Rob Refsnyder has in him, the team clearly wasn't comfortable with him alone or in a platoon with Dustin Ackley. They played Refsnyder as little as they could when he was at the Major League level last year, as if there was a secret about him they didn't want exposed. So I'm guessing there's some information we're not getting.
I would not be surprised to see Gardner's name exit the second position in that lineup, assuming the Yankees can get something worthwhile for him. Given the second half he's had in the past two seasons, Gardner is getting something of a reputation as a player who tries too hard and tires himself out or won't let the team know when he's injured. Other teams pay attention to such things and shy away from them.
The starting rotation is a fine one if everyone stays healthy, which is much like saying that it would be wonderful if Donald Trump is elected president, assuming he completely changes everything about himself before Inauguration Day. It would be great if it were possible, but there's pretty much no chance of that happening.
The bullpen is considerably weaker than it was just 10 days ago. Adam Warren is gone, which hurts both the pen and the starting rotation, and if Bryan Mitchell is the likely successor, he's going to have to show more than he did last year. Justin Wilson for a couple of minor league starters with ERAs over 4? It's a head scratcher.
But if one was listening last week during the Winter Meetings (and one was) it was obvious Brian Cashman does not think this is the team we'll see on Opening Day. He clearly doesn't think this is the team that's coming to Spring Training. It might not be the team that makes it to Christmas.
So it's been something of a surprising offseason so far. That lineup looks interesting (although I am not one who thinks Tex and Mr. Rod will be as good this season as last, particularly if they don't get more rest in the first half), but the strength of the team has been damaged by trades.
More to come? I'm willing to bet on it.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Thursday, December 3, 2015
GMs Will Meet. The Yankees Will Hang Around.
Next week's General Manager meetings for Major League Baseball will probably see quite a bit of activity in free agent signings and trades. Big names will move to new teams. Truckloads of money will change hands. There will be rumors, mistakes, reports and more rumors, and Yankees Hot Stove (my new favorite winter TV show because I'm jonesing bad for baseball) will lose its collective mind trying to report on things that haven't happened yet.
In other words, business as usual.
Don't expect the Yankees to be huge players next week. Yes, Bombers fans, we know you're desperate to steal some thunder from those freakin' Red Sox and their (predictable, read below) David Price signing. Sure, what we have so far is last year's so-so team a year older. Absolutely, this team's history indicates it will open up Fort Knox and back it up to some free agent's backyard.
Not this year.
Show me the position where the Yankees have flexibility. Let's see which huge contracts they can move to make room for new talent. Identify the free agent who will make an impact on the team as it exists and lead it to a better finish than in 2015.
That's right. There are none of those things.
Because they have operated like the Yankees in the past, the Yankees are stuck with contracts that couldn't be moved with a 747 (Teixeira, Sabathia, Mr. Rod, Ellsbury, McCann, Headley). So that means we would have to watch the team pay a ton of money to some of these guys--most of whom have major no-trade clauses in their contracts--not to play for them in order to bring in someone else. Is that better?
There are some signs of progress. Brian Cashman has gotten enough control that draft picks are being protected. Young players (Greg Bird, Rob Refsnyder, Luis Severino) are coming up and being allowed to play in place of dusty old stars. The "formula" that produced Jeter, Williams, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte is at least being considered.
But for 2016, there won't be much change. There can't be. Does that bode well for the coming season? Not really, no. Expect more decline from some aging players. Don't even imagine that at least two of the starting five pitchers will not spend some time on the disabled list, and I don't mean a couple of weeks. Assume that Carlos Beltran will allow every fly ball hit to right field to fall in front of him.
I don't see this as a playoff team. Hal Steinbrenner can go on all he likes about how each year a "championship-caliber" team will be put on the field, but this is not going to be one unless big moves are made. Big moves are not going to be made.
We'll have Ellsbury in center. Beltran in right. Headley at third. Didi at short. Refsndyer/Ackley at second. Tex at first, until he gets hurt, at which time it'll be Bird, which is fine with me. Brett Gardner in left? Probably the most likely to be traded, probably for a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which isn't exactly huge impact.
McCann will catch, but J.R. Murphy will not be backing up because he has earned the chance to start elsewhere. Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez backing up, probably Romine because they won't want Sanchez to sit five days a week.
Pitching: Tanaka (the default ace because there isn't another), Severino (the ace in the making), Sabathia (the ghost of aces past), Pineda (the ace a third to half of the time), and Eovaldi (he's really learning to be an ace now, they'll say). Inspiring huge amounts of confidence? Not so much.
Expect there to be some buzz around the Yankees next week, but not much in the way of big moves. Tweaks, changes, some new faces, but not anybody who'll play every day. It's just not all that possible. This might be a great team in 2017 or (more likely) 2018, but not in 2016.
But of course President Trump is a big Yankee fan, so maybe he'll just bomb all the other teams and that'll make this one seem so much better...
In other words, business as usual.
Don't expect the Yankees to be huge players next week. Yes, Bombers fans, we know you're desperate to steal some thunder from those freakin' Red Sox and their (predictable, read below) David Price signing. Sure, what we have so far is last year's so-so team a year older. Absolutely, this team's history indicates it will open up Fort Knox and back it up to some free agent's backyard.
Not this year.
Show me the position where the Yankees have flexibility. Let's see which huge contracts they can move to make room for new talent. Identify the free agent who will make an impact on the team as it exists and lead it to a better finish than in 2015.
That's right. There are none of those things.
Because they have operated like the Yankees in the past, the Yankees are stuck with contracts that couldn't be moved with a 747 (Teixeira, Sabathia, Mr. Rod, Ellsbury, McCann, Headley). So that means we would have to watch the team pay a ton of money to some of these guys--most of whom have major no-trade clauses in their contracts--not to play for them in order to bring in someone else. Is that better?
There are some signs of progress. Brian Cashman has gotten enough control that draft picks are being protected. Young players (Greg Bird, Rob Refsnyder, Luis Severino) are coming up and being allowed to play in place of dusty old stars. The "formula" that produced Jeter, Williams, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte is at least being considered.
But for 2016, there won't be much change. There can't be. Does that bode well for the coming season? Not really, no. Expect more decline from some aging players. Don't even imagine that at least two of the starting five pitchers will not spend some time on the disabled list, and I don't mean a couple of weeks. Assume that Carlos Beltran will allow every fly ball hit to right field to fall in front of him.
I don't see this as a playoff team. Hal Steinbrenner can go on all he likes about how each year a "championship-caliber" team will be put on the field, but this is not going to be one unless big moves are made. Big moves are not going to be made.
We'll have Ellsbury in center. Beltran in right. Headley at third. Didi at short. Refsndyer/Ackley at second. Tex at first, until he gets hurt, at which time it'll be Bird, which is fine with me. Brett Gardner in left? Probably the most likely to be traded, probably for a middle-of-the-rotation starter, which isn't exactly huge impact.
McCann will catch, but J.R. Murphy will not be backing up because he has earned the chance to start elsewhere. Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez backing up, probably Romine because they won't want Sanchez to sit five days a week.
Pitching: Tanaka (the default ace because there isn't another), Severino (the ace in the making), Sabathia (the ghost of aces past), Pineda (the ace a third to half of the time), and Eovaldi (he's really learning to be an ace now, they'll say). Inspiring huge amounts of confidence? Not so much.
Expect there to be some buzz around the Yankees next week, but not much in the way of big moves. Tweaks, changes, some new faces, but not anybody who'll play every day. It's just not all that possible. This might be a great team in 2017 or (more likely) 2018, but not in 2016.
But of course President Trump is a big Yankee fan, so maybe he'll just bomb all the other teams and that'll make this one seem so much better...
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